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Title: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Allhallowsday on November 18, 2010, 01:46:14 AM
Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
A new Pew poll shows a dramatic change in opinion on climate change among Republicans that seems to mirror a new tone on the issue taken up by GOP politicians.

In the poll, 53 percent of Republicans said there is no evidence for climate change, when only three years ago 62 percent of GOPers said they did believe in global warming. Almost 80 percent of Democrats and a majority of independents said there is solid evidence for global warming.

Overall, 59 percent of adults thought there was good evidence that the planet is warming, and 34 percent said global warming is mostly caused by human activity. Both numbers are down steeply from 2006... 


http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20101117/sc_yblog_thelookout/poll-most-republicans-dont-believe-in-climate-change (http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20101117/sc_yblog_thelookout/poll-most-republicans-dont-believe-in-climate-change)


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Jim H on November 18, 2010, 04:42:03 AM
Quote
In the poll, 53 percent of Republicans said there is no evidence for climate change

Because they're ignorant.  If they want to believe it's not caused by primarily by humans, I can at least see the argument.  But if you don't believe the average temperature of the earth has warmed since we began measuring it, you're simply displaying your ignorance.  Particularly the belief that there is NO EVIDENCE at all.  Yeesh that's stupid.  Maybe you think the evidence is flawed or doesn't prove anything, but to deny its existence?  Really?


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: indianasmith on November 18, 2010, 07:36:17 AM
I think a lot of conservatives are turned off because the issue has been exceedingly politicized by the left, and because most of the proposed solutions are, whether designed to be so or not, thinly disguised attacks on capitalism that would destroy, or at best cripple, the U.S. economy (i.e., cap and trade), while giving the "emerging nations" a free pass.  Sounds like global economic socialism to me.
  Personally, it is obvious that the globe has warmed up some, although hucksters like Gore have grossly overstated the immediate threat.  The evidence for human causation is a good bit weaker than is generally realized, and the fact is that every nation on earth could adopt every policy Gore recommends, and we still don't KNOW that it would make any difference in global temperatures at all.  It's a heck of a reach to ask a nation to hamstring its already sputtering economy as part of a solution that may not make any difference  . . .


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: AndyC on November 18, 2010, 08:12:10 AM
The earth's climate has never stopped changing. We have evidence of substantial changes over hundreds of millions of years. We've had reliable measurements and records of weather for a period of time that is insignificant in geological terms, but we're seeing a trend there that we're assuming is unusual because we really have nothing to compare it to. Our advances in meteorology naturally come at the same time as advances in everything else, including technology, which has always scared a certain portion of the population. There is no conclusive proof that our technology is the chief cause of the change we're seeing, just circumstantial evidence and a few theories that people with political and social axes to grind quickly grabbed and ran with back in the 70s and 80s.

Is it happening? Something is clearly happening. Did our technology cause it? We don't know. Would it have happened anyway? We don't know. How far will it go? If you take away the assumptions about the cause, we don't know. Can we do anything about it? We don't know.

Should we ignore it? Absolutely not. But if we're going to make a bunch of assumptions based as much in fear and politics as in science, spread our ideas to the public through popular entertainment and other means, then dig our heels in to the point of shouting down anyone who proposes alternatives (and ironically accusing them of having an agenda), we might just as well be ignoring it. The approach being taken is no less foolish.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: trekgeezer on November 18, 2010, 08:30:44 AM
Republicans don't believe in climate change because the industries that line their pockets don't want them to. 


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: lester1/2jr on November 18, 2010, 10:33:22 AM
well you could turn around and say liberal believe in climate change because they hate those same companies. There have been phony scare issues in the past like acid rain and population overgrowth or whatever. Alot of them variations on Malthus's population stuff that was largely debunked by economists and agriculture experts alike. The idea was that if populations kept growing their wouldn't be enough food to feed all of them. In reality more people tends to mean more food! in a phenomena called economies of scale.

I have no opinion on the issue I don't get science at all haha though I do know that Greenland is benfitting greatly from the higher temperatures, its uncovered tons of resources under the ice.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Rev. Powell on November 18, 2010, 03:30:08 PM
I think a lot of conservatives are turned off because the issue has been exceedingly politicized by the left, and because most of the proposed solutions are, whether designed to be so or not, thinly disguised attacks on capitalism that would destroy, or at best cripple, the U.S. economy (i.e., cap and trade), while giving the "emerging nations" a free pass.  Sounds like global economic socialism to me.
  Personally, it is obvious that the globe has warmed up some, although hucksters like Gore have grossly overstated the immediate threat.  The evidence for human causation is a good bit weaker than is generally realized, and the fact is that every nation on earth could adopt every policy Gore recommends, and we still don't KNOW that it would make any difference in global temperatures at all.  It's a heck of a reach to ask a nation to hamstring its already sputtering economy as part of a solution that may not make any difference  . . .

I agree with most of this explanation, though I would put it in less partisan terms.  :smile:  I think the left/right split on the issue goes back to the Kyoto treaty that the Clinton administration was pushing, which as I understand it would have been a terrible deal.  It would have punished developed countries while adopting much softer standards for "developing" countries like China and India, who are huge polluters and will become bigger ones. 

Attacking the science behind global warming was an unfortunate move, unfortunately.  The scientific debate has no become so polluted by politics (on both sides) that it's almost impossible for a layman to get a straight answer.  People tend to believe whichever set of experts are saying what they want to hear. 

I'll split the difference.  I think global warming is real, but not an impending apocalypse.  Developing alternative energy sources and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels is something we should be doing anyway.   


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: indianasmith on November 18, 2010, 09:07:00 PM
And there I will absolutely agree with you!
The sooner we can quit using oil, the sooner we can tell the Arabs to choke on the stuff, and the less misery will result from us pouring billions of dollars into the hands of
people whose stated goal is the death of Western civilization.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Allhallowsday on November 18, 2010, 11:42:28 PM
I think a lot of conservatives are turned off because the issue has been exceedingly politicized by the left, and because most of the proposed solutions are, whether designed to be so or not, thinly disguised attacks on capitalism that would destroy, or at best cripple, the U.S. economy (i.e., cap and trade), while giving the "emerging nations" a free pass.  Sounds like global economic socialism to me.
  Personally, it is obvious that the globe has warmed up some, although hucksters like Gore have grossly overstated the immediate threat.  The evidence for human causation is a good bit weaker than is generally realized, and the fact is that every nation on earth could adopt every policy Gore recommends, and we still don't KNOW that it would make any difference in global temperatures at all.  It's a heck of a reach to ask a nation to hamstring its already sputtering economy as part of a solution that may not make any difference  . . .
I agree with most of this explanation, though I would put it in less partisan terms.  :smile: 
Okay, you get a pass for that, and I know you know what I mean.  Mr. Maneuverer.   

I'll split the difference.  I think global warming is real, but not an impending apocalypse.  Developing alternative energy sources and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels is something we should be doing anyway.   
An "impending apocalypse" may perhaps be measured in centuries, or decades, not years or minutes.  We live, but not to live on?


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Umaril The Unfeathered on November 19, 2010, 12:07:21 AM
Hard to say...something is happening, but exactly what it is, (and why) may forever be lost in the partisan sauce both sides have added their own spices to.  And any little thing that happens will be conveniently attributed to gobal warming (or whatever other issue they can use to polarize the masses and divide the camps.)



I think a lot of conservatives are turned off because the issue has been exceedingly politicized by the left, and because most of the proposed solutions are, whether designed to be so or not, thinly disguised attacks on capitalism that would destroy, or at best cripple, the U.S. economy.

That could very well be. We all have heard the saying about the road to hell being paved with good intentions.

As to to other disaster scenarios, isn't the sun supposed to burn out sometime in the distant future? I grew up hearing this one a lot. If that's the case, there won't be any warming of any kind, and we'd all be totally screwed.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Allhallowsday on November 19, 2010, 12:48:47 AM
Hard to say...
Y'mean do we "...live on...?   :question:
something is happening, but exactly what it is, (and why) may forever be lost in the partisan sauce both sides have added their own spices to.  And any little thing that happens will be conveniently attributed to gobal warming (or whatever other issue they can use to polarize the masses and divide the camps.)
maybe  :bluesad:
I think a lot of conservatives are turned off because the issue has been exceedingly politicized by the left, and because most of the proposed solutions are, whether designed to be so or not, thinly disguised attacks on capitalism that would destroy, or at best cripple, the U.S. economy.
That could very well be. We all have heard the saying about the road to hell being paved with good intentions. 
As to to other disaster scenarios, isn't the sun supposed to burn out sometime in the distant future? I grew up hearing this one a lot. If that's the case, there won't be any warming of any kind, and we'd all be totally screwed.
The sun burning out thing is old 'cause it won't happen anytime soon... we're not even halfway to the next 5 billion years that the sun will be expending its energy.  After that, probably a long time apparent, we will have vacated or been screwed.   :smile:


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: indianasmith on November 19, 2010, 07:25:28 AM
It's a little dated now, but Michael Crichton's book, STATE OF FEAR, was a fascinating look at the politicization of the global warming scare . . . the only novel I ever read with a 40 page bibliography of articles from scientific journals at the end!


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans don’t believe in climate change
Post by: Doggett on November 19, 2010, 10:05:25 AM
I think this must be an American thing.  :lookingup:
In the UK if you said there was no such thing as climate change you'd be luaghed out of parliament
 
In the UK prety much everyone believes in Global Warming*. You'd be a fool not too.

The Maldives are dissapearing so much that the government held an underwater conference to highight the fact. And I don't know about you guys, but it obnly snowed once in my childhood and now there seems to be a blizzard every year.
Weather is unpridictable and there are always freak cases, but there so many freak cases now that its just become the norm.
(http://www.worldculturepictorial.com/images/content_2/calling-all-countries.jpg)

I can fully understand disputing whats causeing it and how to fix it, but not that its happening.

Crichton was cherry picking data to help tell his story which is perfectly fine thing to do as he writes fiction. The same with Jurassic Park or Time line...




*Well, maybe Sun readers don't. But as long as there's boobs, they're happy.  :smile:


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: lester1/2jr on November 19, 2010, 10:45:53 AM
Im' sure most of the wealthy arab states are cognitive of the move away from fossil fuels. The saudis for one are gearing towad a future in something they have just as much if not more of: solar energy.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Umaril The Unfeathered on November 19, 2010, 12:15:07 PM
In the UK prety much everyone believes in Global Warming*. You'd be a fool not too.

I wouldn't worry too much about the fool part..your parliament already made fools out of your countrymen when they released the Lockerbie bomber out of sympathy, saying he only had months to live.  And guess what? More than 3 months have passed by and he's still alive; what's up with that?   :question:   I hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it...

And I don't know about you guys, but it only snowed once in my childhood and now there seems to be a blizzard every year. Weather is unpridictable and there are always freak cases, but there so many freak cases now that its just become the norm.

Try living in the Northeastern U.S. all your life. Blizzards are the norm no matter what goes on. We've had them for decades. Last year was a storm where over 3 feet was dumped on us in one shot. And then a week later we got another 1 foot.  And then there's on-street parking and the fight with your neighbors over parking spaces.  Now that's fun..





Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Doggett on November 19, 2010, 12:19:15 PM
In the UK prety much everyone believes in Global Warming*. You'd be a fool not too.

I wouldn't worry too much about the fool part..your parliament already made fools out of your countrymen when they released the Lockerbie bomber out of sympathy, saying he only had months to live.  And guess what? More than 3 months have passed by and he's still alive; what's up with that?   :question:   I hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it...


They are.

 :teddyr:


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Umaril The Unfeathered on November 19, 2010, 12:21:06 PM
In the UK prety much everyone believes in Global Warming*. You'd be a fool not too.

I wouldn't worry too much about the fool part..your parliament already made fools out of your countrymen when they released the Lockerbie bomber out of sympathy, saying he only had months to live.  And guess what? More than 3 months have passed by and he's still alive; what's up with that?   :question:   I hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it...


They are.

 :teddyr:

If that's supposed to be funny, that's in poor taste. Almost 300 people died because of that guy and your countrymen looked the other way. I certainly hope you're not serious...


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans don’t believe in climate change
Post by: Doggett on November 19, 2010, 12:23:11 PM
In the UK prety much everyone believes in Global Warming*. You'd be a fool not too.

I wouldn't worry too much about the fool part..your parliament already made fools out of your countrymen when they released the Lockerbie bomber out of sympathy, saying he only had months to live.  And guess what? More than 3 months have passed by and he's still alive; what's up with that?   :question:   I hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it...


They are.

 :teddyr:

If that's supposed to be funny, that's in poor taste. Almost 300 people died because of that guy and your countrymen looked the other way. I certainly hope you're not serious...

Well, you were asking a pretty stange question " hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it..."

As if I would know or that there was any connection.
I'd like to see the hard facts.





Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Umaril The Unfeathered on November 19, 2010, 12:32:11 PM
In the UK prety much everyone believes in Global Warming*. You'd be a fool not too.

I wouldn't worry too much about the fool part..your parliament already made fools out of your countrymen when they released the Lockerbie bomber out of sympathy, saying he only had months to live.  And guess what? More than 3 months have passed by and he's still alive; what's up with that?   :question:   I hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it...


They are.

 :teddyr:

If that's supposed to be funny, that's in poor taste. Almost 300 people died because of that guy and your countrymen looked the other way. I certainly hope you're not serious...

Well, you were asking a pretty stange question " hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it..."

As if I would know or that there was any connection.
I'd like to see the hard facts.

Well, your leaders already lied to you about how long the Bomber had to live, so what else could they be doing behind your backs?  You think the U.S. is the only country that has dirty deals? 



Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Doggett on November 19, 2010, 12:41:50 PM


In the UK prety much everyone believes in Global Warming*. You'd be a fool not too.

I wouldn't worry too much about the fool part..your parliament already made fools out of your countrymen when they released the Lockerbie bomber out of sympathy, saying he only had months to live.  And guess what? More than 3 months have passed by and he's still alive; what's up with that?   :question:   I hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it...


They are.

 :teddyr:

If that's supposed to be funny, that's in poor taste. Almost 300 people died because of that guy and your countrymen looked the other way. I certainly hope you're not serious...

Well, you were asking a pretty stange question " hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it..."

As if I would know or that there was any connection.
I'd like to see the hard facts.

Well, your leaders already lied to you about how long the Bomber had to live, so what else could they be doing behind your backs?  You think the U.S. is the only country that has dirty deals? 



Lied ?
Okay, not all of us live in conspiracy land.

I think it was a genuine mistake.

I believe in corruption where ever you find money, but this is going too far. This was politicaly very tough for the English and Scottish governments, they got a lot of a kicking in the press for that.
I think the whole point of a conspiracy is that no one knows...



Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Umaril The Unfeathered on November 19, 2010, 01:02:27 PM


In the UK prety much everyone believes in Global Warming*. You'd be a fool not too.

I wouldn't worry too much about the fool part..your parliament already made fools out of your countrymen when they released the Lockerbie bomber out of sympathy, saying he only had months to live.  And guess what? More than 3 months have passed by and he's still alive; what's up with that?   :question:   I hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it...


They are.

 :teddyr:

If that's supposed to be funny, that's in poor taste. Almost 300 people died because of that guy and your countrymen looked the other way. I certainly hope you're not serious...

Well, you were asking a pretty stange question " hope the new oil fields in Libya were worth it..."

As if I would know or that there was any connection.
I'd like to see the hard facts.

Well, your leaders already lied to you about how long the Bomber had to live, so what else could they be doing behind your backs?  You think the U.S. is the only country that has dirty deals? 



Lied ?
Okay, not all of us live in conspiracy land.

I think it was a genuine mistake.

I believe in corruption where ever you find money, but this is going too far. This was politicaly very tough for the English and Scottish governments, they got a lot of a kicking in the press for that.
I think the whole point of a conspiracy is that no one knows...

As far as "conspiracy land" goes, I was just raising the question of oil fields for the UK as a possibility and not a positive.   But you did say it yourself, that where there's money, there's corruption. And I'm sure that many of your own countrymen feel the same way, if asked. 

And as far as Britian and Scotland getting kicked in the press for their decision, well that usually happens when politicians put the lives of terrorists above the lives of their victims.   Make a bad deal, expect to get kicked for it. It's that way everywhere.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Rev. Powell on November 19, 2010, 01:48:11 PM
I think a lot of conservatives are turned off because the issue has been exceedingly politicized by the left, and because most of the proposed solutions are, whether designed to be so or not, thinly disguised attacks on capitalism that would destroy, or at best cripple, the U.S. economy (i.e., cap and trade), while giving the "emerging nations" a free pass.  Sounds like global economic socialism to me.
  Personally, it is obvious that the globe has warmed up some, although hucksters like Gore have grossly overstated the immediate threat.  The evidence for human causation is a good bit weaker than is generally realized, and the fact is that every nation on earth could adopt every policy Gore recommends, and we still don't KNOW that it would make any difference in global temperatures at all.  It's a heck of a reach to ask a nation to hamstring its already sputtering economy as part of a solution that may not make any difference  . . .
I agree with most of this explanation, though I would put it in less partisan terms.  :smile: 
Okay, you get a pass for that, and I know you know what I mean.  Mr. Maneuverer.   


Actually, I don't know if I know you know what I mean.  :wink: To clarify, the exact parts of Indy's original post I disagree with are:

*"The issue has been politicized by the left" (the right is equally guilty)

*"...the proposed solutions are, whether designed to be so or not, thinly disguised attacks on capitalism..." (I don't believe the proposed solutions are an "attack on capitalism")

*"...would destroy, or at best cripple, the U.S. economy..." (exaggerated)

*"...evidence for human causation is a good bit weaker than is generally realized..." (I'm not sure anyone in this discussion is really qualified to make that assessment)


Those rhetorical exaggerations aside, I pretty much agree with him.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Allhallowsday on November 19, 2010, 05:15:39 PM
I think a lot of conservatives are turned off because the issue has been exceedingly politicized by the left, and because most of the proposed solutions are, whether designed to be so or not, thinly disguised attacks on capitalism that would destroy, or at best cripple, the U.S. economy (i.e., cap and trade), while giving the "emerging nations" a free pass.  Sounds like global economic socialism to me.
  Personally, it is obvious that the globe has warmed up some, although hucksters like Gore have grossly overstated the immediate threat.  The evidence for human causation is a good bit weaker than is generally realized, and the fact is that every nation on earth could adopt every policy Gore recommends, and we still don't KNOW that it would make any difference in global temperatures at all.  It's a heck of a reach to ask a nation to hamstring its already sputtering economy as part of a solution that may not make any difference  . . .
I agree with most of this explanation, though I would put it in less partisan terms.  :smile: 
Okay, you get a pass for that, and I know you know what I mean.  Mr. Maneuverer.   
Actually, I don't know if I know you know what I mean.  :wink: To clarify, the exact parts of Indy's original post I disagree with are:
*"The issue has been politicized by the left" (the right is equally guilty)
*"...the proposed solutions are, whether designed to be so or not, thinly disguised attacks on capitalism..." (I don't believe the proposed solutions are an "attack on capitalism")
*"...would destroy, or at best cripple, the U.S. economy..." (exaggerated)
*"...evidence for human causation is a good bit weaker than is generally realized..." (I'm not sure anyone in this discussion is really qualified to make that assessment)
Those rhetorical exaggerations aside, I pretty much agree with him.[/size]
Hey, I said you get a "pass".   :wink:  I get you better than you might ascertain, and your levelheaded assertions are what I would have expected from you.  So... you basically agree, except with all of Indy's points because they are exaggerated.   :question: :tongueout:


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Rev. Powell on November 19, 2010, 07:01:35 PM
So... you basically agree, except with all of Indy's points because they are exaggerated.   :question: :tongueout:

I basically agree with your characterization of my views, too, except for the  :question:

 :tongueout:

Even conservatives agree we need to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels. 

The real debate is how much we should prioritize it, not whether we should do it at all. 

This "global warming is real/is unproven" of "real but is/isn't caused by humans" debate kind of obscures that.  But maybe it's all just a sideshow for us masses anyway.



Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Jim H on November 19, 2010, 07:15:31 PM
Quote
Well, your leaders already lied to you about how long the Bomber had to live, so what else could they be doing behind your backs?  You think the U.S. is the only country that has dirty deals? 


They didn't lie.  A doctor figured he had just a few months to live.  Actually, several did.  "Months to live" things are basically educated guesses.  In all likelihood, returning home to his family gave him greater vigor - it's not like anyone is denying he has terminal cancer.

It's also worth noting, I suppose, that the case against al-Megrahi seems weak and circumstantial.  Point in fact, the first thing the guy talked about on his release was how he'd prove his innocence.  Not to say that proves his innocence, of course, but it is interesting.

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/66187,news-comment,news-politics,how-abdelbaset-al-megrahi-and-libya-were-framed-for-lockerbie-bombing (http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/66187,news-comment,news-politics,how-abdelbaset-al-megrahi-and-libya-were-framed-for-lockerbie-bombing)

What does this have to do with global warming again?


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Umaril The Unfeathered on November 19, 2010, 07:21:51 PM
Even conservatives agree we need to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels. 

For reasons of financial and energy independence, if for nothing else.

The real debate is how much we should prioritize it, not whether we should do it at all.

And using reasonable measures to achieve it. 

This "global warming is real/is unproven" of "real but is/isn't caused by humans" debate kind of obscures that.  But maybe it's all just a sideshow for us masses anyway.

If so, it would be one of many such sideshows, and one of many to come. It never ends.




Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Mofo Rising on November 20, 2010, 01:41:25 AM
*"...evidence for human causation is a good bit weaker than is generally realized..." (I'm not sure anyone in this discussion is really qualified to make that assessment)

Not true at all. If you really want to educate yourself on this matter, all of the data is publicly available. You can look it up if you really care about it. That the whole issue has been extremely politicized just points to the fact that you should look up so you can talk about intelligently.

If you buy somebody's argument just because it coincides with your predecided beliefs, well, you're a feeb.

Look it up and think critically. If you're not doing that, well we can all tell you're fooling yourself for kicks.

EDIT: Upon re-reading, that "feeb" remark seems harsher than I intended, and it was also not intended to be aimed at any specific audiences.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: ulthar on November 20, 2010, 06:56:00 AM

Not true at all. If you really want to educate yourself on this matter, all of the data is publicly available. You can look it up if you really care about it. That the whole issue has been extremely politicized just points to the fact that you should look up so you can talk about intelligently.

If you buy somebody's argument just because it coincides with your predecided beliefs, well, you're a feeb.

Look it up and think critically. If you're not doing that, well we can all tell you're fooling yourself for kicks.


This is an excellent point, but has a severe limitation or two.

First and foremost, is that the data, and the modeling, require a TON of specialized training and mathematics skills to PROPERLY understand in any meaningful way.  That's how "they" get away with manipulating opinions - they are banking on the poor science and math skills of most people, and take a "*I* understand this, just listen to me" approach.

I've done stochastic modeling and computational fluid dynamics calculations.  My graduate thesis was on chemical reaction dynamics and the ways that molecules store energy.  I can (and have) teach the math, chemistry and physics of "climate science" (which is a made-up "science" since it's JUST chemistry and physics, but hey, no one here will listen to me on this matter) at a graduate level, and I KNOW from MY OWN "critical thinking" on this topic that the so-called "settled science" behind it pure, unadulterated crap.

My position on it nowadays is that if you (a) don't know what the term "stochastic modeling" means AND (b) have not actually done it yourself then you are neither qualified to offer an opinion to me nor challenge my own conclusions (whether they are right or wrong).

In other words, I've gotten to the point that I will only discuss "climate change" with other Ph.D. physicists and chemists, and preferably only those that are not currently working on the public dole for their "livelihood."

As to,

Quote

(I'm not sure anyone in this discussion is really qualified to make that assessment)


What's sad is that anyone with a BS or BA in any physical science (chemistry, physics, geology, etc) SHOULD be qualified to analyze this data and the conclusions being drawn from it.  But since the level of our contemporary science and math education is in the toilet, this does not surprise me.

There was a time, only a generation or two ago, that Mofo's critical thinking point above would apply to a far broader spectrum of people.  However, just yesterday (and also earlier in the week), I was lamenting the "illusion" I see in education with a good friend...another chemist...who spends HIS time correcting the imbecilic mistakes of other "scientists" that would otherwise appear in the country's college text books.  And I mean, truly imbecilic, fundamental errors in basic understanding and thinking, not typos.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Rev. Powell on November 21, 2010, 12:29:03 AM
*"...evidence for human causation is a good bit weaker than is generally realized..." (I'm not sure anyone in this discussion is really qualified to make that assessment)

Not true at all. If you really want to educate yourself on this matter, all of the data is publicly available. You can look it up if you really care about it. That the whole issue has been extremely politicized just points to the fact that you should look up so you can talk about intelligently.


Let me point out that neither you nor Ulthar, our board scientists, were in the discussion at the time I wrote "I'm not sure anyone in this discussion is really qualified to make that assessment."  :wink:

The only reliable data I could find when I tried to research the issue a few years ago was the U.N.'s report, which I looked through.  (The report, of course, does not say "human activity is causing the globe to get hotter"; it says there's a high probability the climate is getting warmer, and a less high probability that human activity is the cause).   

I found lots of references to dissenting opinions, but nothing that was an actual study, not a politically slanted synopsis. 

It's true that if I cared enough, I could locate the data I needed to make an informed opinion.  But 90-95% of the material I found (via Google) was spin, not hard data or reasoned analysis.  Some of the discussions I located among people who did know what they were talking about were impenetrable, because they assumed a certain amount of familiarity with the intricate ongoing argument that I didn't have.  I could learn what I needed to know to form a decent opinion, but I choose not to put in the time necessary to educate myself on the issue.     

To Ulthar's point, I'm proud to say that I really don't know enough to form a strong opinion.  Many who know far less about the subject than I do have formed unalterable positions. 

My scientific background is a minor in biochemistry decades ago: just enough to make me familiar with how much I actually don't know.

As legal expert I know that laymen usually have little idea what they're talking about, and that reading a newspaper report or editorial about a Supreme Court opinion is almost worthless for educating yourself on the issue.  Such articles may actually be misleading.  Even reading the actual opinion firsthand is not that useful, if you haven't been trained to read cases.  Science is the same; I know that newspaper synopses of peer-review journal articles are often misleading to the point of being nearly useless.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: ulthar on November 21, 2010, 12:44:28 AM
And what continually amazes ME is that folks with backgrounds in science, law, medicine, history and from a whole heap of other walks of life continue to post on a BAD MOVIES forum.   :cheers:

There's something poetic in that, I find...   :smile:


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Mofo Rising on November 21, 2010, 02:26:38 AM
And what continually amazes ME is that folks with backgrounds in science, law, medicine, history and from a whole heap of other walks of life continue to post on a BAD MOVIES forum.   :cheers:

There's something poetic in that, I find...   :smile:

Well, there's no academic journals dedicated to the Z-grade aspects of cinema.

Actually, I'd love to see that. Especially if the arguments were as vituperative as science arguments tend to get. Oh, letters to the editor, extensively cited, arguing the merits of Ted V. Mikels' filmography. If you think people get up in arms about Shakespeare interpretations, wait until you hear them argue, passionately, about a movie like "The Worm Eaters."


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: indianasmith on November 21, 2010, 09:37:29 AM
Especially if they act like college drama teachers and use all sorts of fancy, pseudopsychological terms to discuss the motivations of the Cable Repairmen in
THE COWBOY KILLER.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Derf on November 21, 2010, 12:59:17 PM
Especially if they act like college drama teachers and use all sorts of fancy, pseudopsychological terms to discuss the motivations of the Cable Repairmen in
THE COWBOY KILLER.

Hey, now you're starting to get into MY field (English). Perhaps I should start doing Literary criticisms of cinematic messterpieces such as Sleepaway Camp or The Wild Women of Wongo. The only problem is that nobody really reads Literary criticisms, so why bother?  :tongueout:


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Bill Williams on November 27, 2010, 12:03:29 AM
No surprise. Republican voters still believe i trickle down economics and that putting people in prison for smoking marijuana is a good idea. It's easy to see that they'd be stupid enough to deny human influenced climate change.


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Allhallowsday on November 27, 2010, 12:08:59 AM
No surprise. Republican voters still believe i trickle down economics and that putting people in prison for smoking marijuana is a good idea. It's easy to see that they'd be stupid enough to deny human influenced climate change.
Ah, STFU.  :teddyr:


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: JaseSF on December 05, 2010, 09:35:19 PM
Hmm well whether caused by humans or not (I'm not sure it's just caused by humans or a natural process of nature), climate change certainly does seem to be happening. The difference between winters here are pretty evident to me, I've never seen winters so mild as we get nowadays where we rarely even seem to get much snow anymore yet south of us and over in Europe, they seem to get far more snow and colder, harsher weather - more what we were used to here for so long. We had the worst hurricane (Igor) in over a century here that did considerable damage this last year and I honestly do believe we do need to be preparing for more such weather occurences in the future. I think the whole world does need to be preparing for the potential of more devastating weather...


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: BTM on December 06, 2010, 02:31:57 AM
Interesting point though, I think a lot of the cynicism comes from the fact that it wasn't too long ago that many environmental groups were telling the world that we were on the verge of global COOLING.  

http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm (http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm)

They said that the temperature was going to drop, and we were all going to enter a new Ice Age.  

In addition, many environmental groups have been just churning out one doomsday scenario after another, completely downplaying (or ignoring altogether) all the strides that HAVE been made when it comes to improving technology, tighter regulations, and positive steps forward environmentally.  For instance, many people predicted the United States (and the rest of the planet) would began starving itself to death in the late EIGHTIES because of overpopulation and that we need to stop having kids right away.  But, SURPRISE!  Turns out new technologies and advances in farming that could not have been dreamed of decades ago vastly increased the food supply.

Course, then many of the Doomsday theories just pushed their time line back a few decades and repeated their claims.

Since a lot of environmental groups rely on DONATIONS to keep them going, you're NEVER apt to hear anything but bad news when it comes to the current state of the world.  

And then there's the factor that a lot of people are cynical about climate change because flat out they don't like what they perceive as the hypocritical stance of Limousine Liberals who tell people they need to "cut back" on things in order to help the environment, while they themselves travel around in PRIVATE jets and live in mansions.  (As has been famously pointed out, Al Gore's mansions use up more power than the city in which the mansions reside.)

Now, again, that in and of itself, doesn't necessarily invalidate the idea or the validity of Global Warming, but you can see why it could cause some backlash against the idea.

Similar to say, oh, I don't know... a top religious figure being caught in an affair would produce a lot of cynicism toward whatever religion said figure practiced (although some types of scandals tend to get way more media attention than others.)

And the allegory (if you'll pardon the pun) isn't as far off as you might think, considering Al Gore is actually regarded as a prophet by some.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQygvUrBMGU


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Umaril The Unfeathered on December 06, 2010, 11:06:07 AM
Interesting point though, I think a lot of the cynicism comes from the fact that it wasn't too long ago that many environmental groups were telling the world that we were on the verge global COOLING.


Jeez, global cooling, global warming...will someone in Congress pick a setting and leave the fu**in' thing alone?

http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm (http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm)

They said that the temperature was going to drop, and we were all going to enter a new Ice Age.


Yeah, most likely our "entry" into the new Ice Age will be another Ice Age movie...


Since a lot of environmental groups rely on DONATIONS to keep them going, you're NEVER apt to hear anything but bad news when it comes to the current state of the world.


Of course..they need more money for their own vices all the while they continue to act like angels of humanity warning everyone else about theirs.

And then there's the factor that a lot of people are cynical about climate change because flat out, they don't like what they perceive as the hypocritical stance of Limousine Liberals who tell people they need to "cut back" on things in order to help the environment, while they themselves travel around in PRIVATE jets and live in mansions.  (As has been famously pointed out, Al Gore's mansions uses up more power than the city in which the mansions reside.)


Private Jets!  Nancy Pelosi comes to mind. 3+million a year in taxpayer dough while another half-mil goes for executive privileges fo rher and her friends. Gee, Hillary must've bought a lot of pantsuits with that kind a' swag..

Now, again, that in and of itself, doesn't necessarily invalidate the idea or the validity of Global Warming, but you can see why it could cause some backlash against the idea.


Especially since the biggest defenders of said issues are also the biggest hypocrites, in the case of the Limousine Liberals you pointed out.

Similar to say, oh, I don't know... a top religious figure being caught in an affair would produce a lot of cynicism toward whatever religion said figure practiced (although some types of scandals tend to get way more media attention than others.)


Scandals-Clinton-Lewinsky comes to mind. Everyone says "oh that was HIS business, not ours," knowing full well that if it was a Bush or Ronald Reagan, the same people would never let them live it down.  Monica made out good though, especially with that 'wad of bills' that was left in the pocket of her evening dress.


And the allegory (if you'll pardon the pun) isn't as far off as you might think, considering Al Gore is actually regarded as a prophet by some.


yeah, really.  :lookingup:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQygvUrBMGU
[/quote]


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Doggett on December 12, 2010, 08:50:52 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-F8EO3qOVk

I just had to post that !  :teddyr:


Title: Re: Poll: Most Republicans donít believe in climate change
Post by: Umaril The Unfeathered on December 12, 2010, 10:07:13 PM
Oh jeez, that was funny. lol  :bouncegiggle: