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Badmovies.org Forum  |  Other Topics  |  Off Topic Discussion  |  letter to a friend re green energy « previous next »
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Author Topic: letter to a friend re green energy  (Read 1790 times)
lester1/2jr
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« on: February 09, 2010, 02:58:54 PM »

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From: lester
To: his yuppie sister
Sent: Tue, February 9, 2010 12:45:59 PM
Subject: ALSO also


been following http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=npwz.ob this stock.
 
 
some really amazing work being done by shareholders visiting the plant unnanounced, getting in touch with ex employees etc.  I DON'T recomend the stock but not because of management.
 
This is going to sound like stating the obvious but outside of some solar stuff, it really seems that no matter how many pattents and MIT scientists these "green "and related companies get, they simply can't compete price wise with like coal you get out of the ground by the ton. 
 
I don't see how this is going to change, I really don't.

same with algae oil and all that.  thus, these stocks are languishing in the extreme OB and pink sheets despite tens of millions of r and d. 
 

------------------------------------------------------------

From: lester's yuppie sister
To: lester
Sent: Tue, Feb 9, 2010 12:52 pm
Subject: Re: ALSO also


tax credits can save them....we got loads on our solar water deal on top of th ehouse ( that I hate)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

to sister

from lester

 
how are you going to sell a fuel cell that uses friggin PLATINUM as a catalyst?  it's like 1500 dollar an ounce!
 
I'd say green energy is pretty much done, at least for the time being and I have some skin http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=behl.pk  in the game so I ain't just whistlin dixie
 
another floor guy is here. at least he is not hammering
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Nukie 2
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« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2010, 10:20:50 PM »

Gotta look at the cost/benefit analysis when it comes to environmental and "green" stuff.

Did you know that with hybrid cars, you'd have to drive like 400,000 miles in one to break even with driving a new non-hybrid car ( or gas would have to be like $8.00 gallon for you to break even at 100,000).
Plus during that time, parts will need to be repaired, the battery etc. Batteries in hybrids are whole lot more expensive than non-hybrids, plus few mechanics know how to work on hybrids (but that may change).
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lester1/2jr
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« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2010, 11:29:59 AM »

I'm not a scientist but I'm looking at it from wall street perspective and lets just say the feasiblity of some of these admittedly brilliant ideas aren't jumping out at me.
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AndyC
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2010, 02:51:32 PM »

Well, I hate to say it, but Lester and I agree on something. While some of these technologies are very interesting and the research very promising, it's not going to amount to much until it becomes practical. Solar, geothermal and wind power have come a long way, as have electric cars, but the initial cost is still prohibitive for most people, and the return on the investment is too long in coming. For the most part, the only people buying these things are doing it for ideological reasons. The rest of us, even if we could see a payoff, would probably opt for an off-the-shelf solution unless it was really worth the extra bother.

The one situation I see where alternative energy is currently cheaper from the beginning is when you build a house far enough off the main road that installing power lines would cost more than solar panels. Not something you'd see in an urban area, but there are a few such houses around here. But even then, the panels can't handle the load people are accustomed to putting on a residential service.

Again, I'm a big fan of some of these technologies, but none of them are anywhere close to replacing the conventional methods.
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lester1/2jr
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2010, 03:50:01 PM »

which leads me to wonder if some of those involved are idealists or scam artists
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AndyC
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« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2010, 05:00:35 PM »

which leads me to wonder if some of those involved are idealists or scam artists

That's a bit of a jump. Maybe they're getting ahead of themselves in promoting it, but the only way this stuff is ever going to reach a practical stage is if the public is interested in it, and it can be a viable commercial enterprise. It's kind of a catch-22 in that respect.

It's not like the technology doesn't work. It's just not ready for you and me. Geothermal heat works, so do solar panels and hybrid cars, once you get past the initial cost. With geothermal, that's kind of unavoidable, because you're drilling and/or exacavating; the unit itself isn't much more than an air conditioner. Hybrid cars are a little bit more complicated than their gas-only counterparts, but a good part of the cost is just for novelty. It's something new, so they'll first sell it to people who'll pay a lot to have one, then the price will gradually come down for the rest of us.

The other part of it is demand, and that is also a catch-22. Right now, the only thing keeping the price of solar panels high is a lack of demand. A solar panel is mostly silicon. Nothing too exotic about it. It's expensive because solar panels aren't produced in large enough numbers for the production costs to come down. That's because relatively few people are buying them, because they are so expensive. That will change, but it will take time.

I agree about the hydrodgen fuel cells though. I just can't see that ever being practical. Aside from the platinum, you're going to use more energy making the hydrogen fuel than you're going to get out of it. Sure, it's cleaner than petroleum, but I'd call it more of a storage medium than an actual source of energy. Ethanol has similar problems. Other than fewer emissions, there's no net gain.

Biodiesel is another one people aren't really thinking through. Sure, you can make it at home out of old cooking grease and pay less than you would for regular diesel, assuming you make enough to buy your chemicals in bulk, and your time isn't worth anything to you. People always forget to include their time in the cost of things. Should be a clue that nobody other than hobbyists seems to be making biodiesel. You'd have a hard time making any money producing it commercially.

For the most part, I support alternative energy. It's one of the few areas where the environmentalist movement is trying to move forward instead of backward. But as with most things, it's a matter of separating the good from the bad.
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Nukie 2
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« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2010, 05:08:19 PM »

which leads me to wonder if some of those involved are idealists or scam artists

Well if they're trying convince others that people will be willing to pay more for what it's currently and demand will rise, and so they bid up the price of these shares; I'd be very suspicious! Especially now.
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lester1/2jr
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« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2010, 05:21:45 PM »

nukie- yeah

Andy- you seem to be coming from more of a science background relatively speaking. I come from more of a finance background relatively speaking and there ARE crooks here as you can well imagine.  You can't be cynical enough on wall street. I mean you check some of these CEOs out and they have rap sheets! they out out pr's punnping their products while they are being sued by their landlord for not paying rent.  


that's alot of what us dreaded traders do, sniff this stuff out.  when these companies start actually selling someting no amount of market manipulation or short selling will stop them from taking off.  



as an example if you are curious this thread


from the neah board shows a classic bull/ bear (the bear is a kind of eccentric ex neah employee named "Gutherg" ) dispute over what new data, in this case a merger, means.

I don't know who's right.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2010, 05:26:33 PM by lester1/2jr » Logged
AndyC
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« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2010, 05:38:05 PM »

Oh, I have no doubt there are some shady characters out there. You get that in any industry that's new enough for somebody to bullsh!t his way in. New technology is a magnet for the get-rich-quick crowd, trying to get in on the ground floor of the next big thing. That's where it helps to know the science. Most people don't, and that's how these guys make their money.

All I'm saying is don't lump it all together. Just because some of the companies are setting off alarm bells doesn't mean the technology itself is a scam.
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