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Author Topic: Oil Depletion? The End of Suburban North American Living?  (Read 6854 times)
JaseSF
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« on: May 29, 2007, 11:24:14 PM »

Who else has seen the following two documentaries?

A CRUDE AWAKENING: THE OIL CRASH

THE END OF SUBURBIA: OIL DEPLETION AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE AMERICAN DREAM

They both raise and explore the possibility of the world having already reached or soon will reach the peak of oil production after which it will be all downhill, maybe gradually or maybe not. It's discussed how oil and natural gas affects our current lifestyles and how so much of the civilized world has become dependent on this non-renewable resource.  Its suggestion that the oil might start running out sooner than expected is downright frightening stuff as really those experts who appear in these documentaries claim  there's no true suitable fuel alternative that will allow the way of life for last 50 years or so to continue.

The implications of this upon the world are major: it most likely will mean warfare over the drying up resource, worldwide starvation, perhaps even another depression era far worse than the previous. Terrifying stuff to listen to and the outcome almost seems somehow unimaginable. Do you believe it's really this serious? Or perhaps even more so? Do you believe they will find a suitable alternative to the oil resource? That one can be found in time? That machinery and mechanisms of society can be adapted in time? Is this perhaps the real reason the U.S. (said in the documentary to use 25 % of the world's oil resource per year while producing 2 %) is in the Middle East today?

Personally I think if it comes too fast, the world might just be set back about an hundred years in time. Perhaps even the horse will again become a valuable commidity in such a future especially in rural areas. Also have to wonder if it wouldn't bring about the return of steam and coal (in fact I suspect coal despite its potential for pollution is one of the best possible alternatives for tomorrow however I feel mass transit has to increase and there should be more localized village, towns and cities where people travel less) as means of travel via train and boat. Hopefully it won't come to that and something else will take the place of oil and do close to the same job but it does seem an unlikely prospect if the oil goes sooner than expected. One thing's for certain, movements should already start in the here and now to use less fuel, to use less electricity, to conserve more, to use less, to travel less.  Even if it's not as bad as these documentaries suggest, and both these are particularly gloom and doom in terms of outlook, I still feel this last idea is the essential thing people have to start doing.  Will they? Sadly I somehow doubt it.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2007, 11:26:42 PM by JaseSF » Logged

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Zapranoth
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2007, 01:29:12 AM »

I think about these kinds of things fairly often, and have for most of my life (I was born in '71).

I am hopeful that partial solutions will be found, and implemented, if the oil crash isn't sudden.   

If it is sudden, I think that by our nature, we won't be prepared nearly enough, and there will be widespread chaos and suffering.

If it is gradual, I have hopes that we (throughout the western world) can make enough change to alternative lifestyles and fuel sources to adapt without as much pain.

I have a certain amount of fear for my children's futures, mixed with hope, and, honestly, with faith in God to make it work out right somehow.
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Jack
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2007, 08:34:13 AM »

It reminds me of Soylent Green.  According to the gloom-and-doomers we should be out of oil by now, we should all be packed shoulder-to-shoulder due to overpopulation, and it should be unbearable hot due to global warming.  And we should still be recovering from Y2K when all the computers in the world shut down.  It drives those people nuts that none of that has happened, but they keep making documentaries about how it's going to happen real soon.  The real motivation is that they  think people are a blight upon this pretty planet. 

If oil starts running short, there are a lot of untapped resources.  For instance Russia has huge reserves that aren't being made use of because they don't have the money to exploit it.  And we can always drill in areas that the environmentalists complain about now. 

But personally, I look forward to the day when we run out of oil and the petroleum companies finally quit screwing me over for $3.20 a gallon.  There are a lot of great technologies out there for electric, fuel cell and hydrogen powered cars.  All that's needed is an actual need for these technologies, then the auto manufacturers will put some real money into R&D and give us some automobiles that will be as good as the ones we've got now, just with no need for oil.  I'd buy a hybrid car right now if that Toyota Prius wasn't so damned ugly.  If there ever does come a day when petroleum starts running short, you can bet that we'll see a flood of these new cars and the transition will go pretty smoothly.  And hey, it'll be good for the environment too.  And then the gloom-and-doomers will have to come up with a new sky-is-falling dilemma to work themselves into a frenzy over  TeddyR
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JaseSF
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2007, 11:51:49 AM »

Practically every fuel alternative we have today as possibilities is quickly dismissed in both those documentaries unless we have a lot of time to develop an option fully and properly. Ethanol and Hydrogen they claims requires far more energy to produce that what they offer up (and in the case of ethanol,  plant food pesticides are still petroleum-based).  They barely mentioned coal (which strikes me as a real alternative still used in many poorer parts of the world) just saying it would cause too much pollution. Personally I wonder if coal-powered mass transit, or indeed other forms of mass transit, would be as bad as the multitude of cars on today's highways.
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« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2007, 11:57:13 AM »


The implications of this upon the world are major: it most likely will mean warfare over the drying up resource.


We are probably already seeing some of this now.


Do you believe they will find a suitable alternative to the oil resource?


Someone just recently murdered the guy who invented the car that runs on water in France.
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« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2007, 08:57:57 PM »

To comment and agree somewhat with Jack, Fear is always marketable.There are untapped resources, but even these would be short term solutions, band aids at best.

I worry that the oil will run out within my or my (potential) children's lifetime. Even if we go with one or many alternative fuel resources tomorrow, the infrastructure will take decades to put in place and and transition toward. I'd prefer we took the steps to move away from oil now, but people in the industrialized world (not just the West) will not go along easily with any new technology that would mean a step back in their standard of living or their comfort and mobility. Even with the rise in telecommuting anddoing business online, air traffic seems to get worse not better. Not all of those folks are taking vacations.
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« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2007, 10:15:31 PM »

We should have been moving towards alternative fuels quite some time ago, but I fear that it'll be too little too later once the oil has in fact dried up.
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« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2007, 11:29:41 PM »

I don't buy the claim that there are no alturnatives to oil.  What about solar energy?  The only problem with current solar cells is efficiency.  But I don't see that as a problem, it just means you need more panels and surface area to get energy. 
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Jack
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« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2007, 08:19:26 AM »

I think the infrastructure is already in place for electric cars.  Of course they'd have to put some sort of timer on the cars so you could plug them in when you got home from work or shopping but they wouldn't start charging until the middle of the night when demand on the power grid is lowest.  Currently those cars aren't much good for cross country trips but they're fine for getting around town.  Hybrid cars would make a better vehicle for long trips.

And the oil isn't going to run out all of a sudden, like some Suadi Arabian says, "Well, sorry folks but that's the last drop".  There are a lot of places that have only recently started exploiting their oil wealth, and others that have  barely started.  You'd see a gradual increase in the price and a gradual shift towards alternative energy sources.  Stuff like methane is as plentiful as ever.  As it would take a while, the infrastructure for alternative fuels could be set up.  We can do some pretty amazing things if we have to. 

Personally I think the automobile technology would catch up quickly enough and we'd all be better off for it.  Wave a few hundred billion in potential profits in front of the auto manufacturers and they'll solve the problem.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2007, 08:28:38 AM by Jack » Logged

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JaseSF
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« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2007, 11:50:06 AM »

There seemed to be a suggestion in "THE END OF SUBURBIA" that with oil might also go electricity (at least in some cases). Not sure as to the accuracy of that.
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« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2007, 11:48:55 PM »

When I started driving in the 70's the BIG gas crunch was on, long line, station closed and the end of full service as we knew it. (For you young folks they use to check your oil, tires, fill the tank and clean the windows and give you a free collector mug with every fill-up ... collective all!) Anyway they were all screaming we would be OUT OF OIL by the year 2000, dried up, gone we'd all be riding horses, bikes or walking doom and gloom was just around the corner. Well that pasted and along we went until Hurricane Katrina and gas shot up again and for the most part kept going up barring a few dips. Now we're back to doom and gloom again. EVEN THOUGH ... there is billions and billions of barrels of untapped oil in Alaska, California Coast, Midwest and other parts of the US alone. So blame those blocking the drilling of this oil on high prices.
Now with that said, we do need to cut back and find new energy sources, but running out of oil; sure we're running out of oil just like the sun is running out of hydrogen as nothing last forever. But how fast I don't think they really know, just random guesses.

Now excuse me while I take cover from the falling sky.
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trekgeezer
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« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2007, 05:23:08 PM »

Cheeze is right, the world is not running out of oil. There is plenty of oil, the problem with gas prices is the refining capability is not there, therefore the supply cannot meet the demand.  I do believe that we don't use energy wisely, I hate those gas sucking SUV's. Unless you have a big boat or something else big to tow, there is not justifiable need for such a vehicle.  They are nothing but status symbols (and rip offs, they sell for 2-3 times what they cost to manufacture).

None of alternatives are workable either. You're going to stop driving your gas burning vehicle for an electric car that get  charged with power from a plant that is most probably coal fired. 

Farmers are jumping into corn because the price is going up with all this talk about ethanol.  If the price continues to go up, what would happen? You're going to see corn fields popping up in poor countries to take care of the demand for cheap fuel. American farmers will go out of business, but wait Uncle Sam will subsidize them to keep the cheap corn out of the country.  A can of niblets will cost $10.

I'll have to see a lot of testing before I get in a car fueled by hydrogen, remember the Hindenburg?

There will never be a handle on this stuff until people start acting responsibly and we get the politicians out of big oils pockets. 

Oil isn't drilled in US anymore because of our labor costs. I lived in Louisiana when the oil business there went bust in the early 80's. It cost more to get a barrel of oil out of the ground here than it will bring on the world market.

 The hot thing here in Arkansas right now is natural gas.  There are a lot of folks making money from selling drilling rights. 
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JaseSF
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« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2007, 05:50:58 PM »

I suspect there's untapped oil resources in my own home province - Newfoundland and Labrador.  Conditions are harsh here though no denying it especially off-shore.

And oh speaking of the possible end of everything we know and take for granted (I really believe the world benefits from considering the worst possible outcomes and preparing for them myself exaggerated or not, check out this article:

http://www.bestlifeonline.com/cms/publish/travel-leisure/Our_oceans_are_turning_into_plastic_are_we.shtml
« Last Edit: June 02, 2007, 05:54:00 PM by JaseSF » Logged

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« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2007, 04:17:09 PM »

I am very environmentalist, but this is mostly alarmism.  We have 50-80 years worth of KNOWN oil left, and there is certainly more undiscovered.  We could generate electricity by nuclear power (the risk is actually lower than coal). 

As for ethanol and biodiesel, SOME pesticides are petroleum-based,  but there ARE organic alternatives (pyrethrins [from certain flowers], limonene [found in oranges and other citrus], etc.)

The plastic pollution thing makes me mad!   However, I don't think the implications for human health (except for ecosystem damage) are actually all that serious.  Most people don't realize just how much the human body can take.  Just because radiation/plastic/whatever is present, that doesn't mean it's having a measurable effect.  As for declining fertility rates, its that really all that terrible?  (Solution to overpopulation??)
« Last Edit: June 03, 2007, 04:21:02 PM by Vultur » Logged
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« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2007, 09:03:39 PM »

Most people don't realize just how much the human body can take.  Just because radiation/plastic/whatever is present, that doesn't mean it's having a measurable effect.  As for declining fertility rates, its that really all that terrible?  (Solution to overpopulation??)

The earth does have a way of balancing things out and cleansing itself when it needs to. Welcome to the forum Vultur.
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