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Author Topic: Worst Crisis Since '30s, With No End Yet in Sight  (Read 2372 times)
Allhallowsday
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« on: September 18, 2008, 12:20:12 AM »

Worst Crisis Since '30s, With No End Yet in Sight 
The financial crisis that began 13 months ago has entered a new, far more serious phase.

Lingering hopes that the damage could be contained to a handful of financial institutions that made bad bets on mortgages have evaporated. New fault lines are emerging beyond the original problem -- troubled subprime mortgages -- in areas like credit-default swaps, the credit insurance contracts sold by American International Group Inc. and others firms. There's also a growing sense of wariness about the health of trading partners... 

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105785/Worst-Crisis-Since-1930s-With-No-End-Yet-in-Sight
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indianasmith
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2008, 06:10:49 AM »

I'm not gonna say things are not bad, but does no one remember the Carter years?  That was the worst economy of MY lifetime.
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ulthar
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2008, 07:26:04 AM »

I'm not gonna say things are not bad, but does no one remember the Carter years?  That was the worst economy of MY lifetime.

Good point.

Have we put the "Misery Index" back into effect?

Of course "no one remembers."  To remember the Carter years, one would have to be 35 years old or so AT LEAST.

The single biggest problem with our economy is DEBT.  For far too many years, people have lived under the belief that they could live above their means and that the self serving immediate gratification was more important than long term stability...stability of both their own lives and the economy as a whole.

Kevin Phillips' latest book addresses debt (and the over financial climate in our culture) as one of the 'evils' that is destroying America.  I haven't read it yet, but I have read the forward.
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trekgeezer
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2008, 07:30:01 AM »

I'm not gonna say things are not bad, but does no one remember the Carter years?  That was the worst economy of MY lifetime.

The late 70's and very early 80's were pretty bad. We bought our first house in 82 and had to pay 13.5% interest, and that was assuming someone else's loans. New home loans at the time were up to  16.5%.  I remember very well the misery index (inflation + unemployment).  Although, that can't all be laid on Carter, he inherited a lot of it. His problem was that he was not a very inspiring leader.

I have to say that the problems we are having now can be accounted for by greed on everyone's part and is affecting the world wide economy much more than what happened during the Carter years.
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Rev. Powell
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2008, 11:32:24 AM »

I'm feeling a certain malaise myself.
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Allhallowsday
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2008, 03:46:36 PM »

Stocks surge on report of entity for bad debt 

Stocks end sharply higher on report that government will create entity to hold banks' debt

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street rallied in a stunning late-session turnaround Thursday, shooting higher and hurtling the Dow Jones industrials up 400 points following a report that the federal government may create an entity that will take over banks' bad debt...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080918/wall_street.html
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CheezeFlixz
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2008, 12:06:44 AM »

Bare with me this might get long but I will make it as non partisan as my Republican ass can.

IMHO this is what caused the housing problem ... to many members of the congress wanted "every American to have a house" they focused on the poor and minorities, many of whom had no credit, bad credit, no job, no assets, and no money (this is why we call them POOR) but yet where still able to get a loan, what was called in the industry as a "Ninja Loans" (No Income, No Job or Assets) this was most prevalent on the west coast where values were going up 25-40% a year, that rate is unsustainable they were buying house at 110-130%+ of asking price ... in-freakin'-sane whereas most of the fly-over country home prices would bring 94-96% of ask, a more realistic sell. Now in Caly-forn-ya the prices are adjusting back down to where they should have been in the first damn place. A 1500 sq ft 1960 ranch style house in need of remodeling on a 150X150 lot is NOT WORTH $800,000.00 but people were paying it and now Joe Taxpayer has to bail them out. (For the record the same style house could be bought here for 1/10th the price.)

What you are seeing is a MASSIVE LONG OVER due market correction, and anything that isn't corrected in short order only gets worse and that's what happened here. This correction is mainly on the west coast, southwest and FL, but it's effecting the entire nation and world. The market here in BFE (Western KY) is stable, property price have not gone down and have gone up yearly at a modest REALISTIC pace of 5-6% per year. (High as 15% on some select areas.)
 
But, banks where giving out loans to people, even ones with jobs that they could not afford them. Some one making $50-75K a year does not and can not afford a $500,000 house ... period, but they'd get approved for a loan anyway. So these idiots getting these risky loans and get them on a (ARM) adjustable rate, that's just foolish in this market and the market of the last few years. ARM's don't keep going down, they do and will go up and you get nailed with a much higher payment that you likely can't make. This is what happened, hello massive foreclosures.
 
So ALWAYS get a fixed rate mortgage if you are going to be in a house more than 5 years, always. Never refinance unless you can get 2 point better than what you are paying now. (You have a 8% APR and you can get 6% refinance) anything less is lost in fees.
 
Anywho ... Fanny May and Freddie Mac was cold busted for cooking the book, in hopes that a upturn in the market would allow them to put the egg back in the shell, well it didn't happen and they went bust. And AIG a trillion dollar underwriter  got caught holding the bag from this multitude of bad loans going bust from many banks that made this high risk loans. This caused AIG to nearly tank and likely would have if the Fed hadn't stepped in, like it or not this was the best move for the economy so be happy you (if you're American) as a taxpayer now own a $1,000,000,000,000.00+ company.

I'm really simplifing this and is far more complex than I'm making it out but if I tried to explain it, not that I could it would cause your head to explode.

The short of the long of it is, IF the Fed and many other world Government didn't prop up the market, you would have had a world wide economic collapse, resulting in a true world wide recession. It's not Bush's fault, it's the fault of many years of both Democrats and Republicans asleep at the wheel. A blind man could have seen this coming, my brother in law is a mortgage banker for Chase in AZ, I'm a contractor in KY and we've been talking about this very event for at least 4 years that the bubble was getting to big and had to bust. BTW it started in the 1990's with a bill I can't think of name of right now to increase poor and minority home ownership, this is the main reason the minority foreclosures are disproportional to the population.
SOME partisans like to call this PREDATORY LENDING because then you can have a victim and a victim is never at fault. Well, there aren't any victims here, what there is, is a bunch of dumbasses that can't read and understand a contract, and if you don't understand a contract then don't sign it.
It p**ses me off to no end when I here someone being foreclosed on say they didn't understand a "ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGE" and that it might go up and now they can't afford the payments ... well which damn part of "ADJUSTABLE" did you have trouble with?

However the upside is, if you have great credit (780+) and reliable income, stable employment, it's time to BUY!   Current rates are 5.5% fixed APR or less, because if I was a betting man ... and I am, it's going to go up from here. We're close to the bottom, it might get one more cut, but I doubt it. Foreclosures can be had for 50 cents or less on the dollar.

Here are some simple rules, buy everything you can AFFORD, but not more in a house. 99% of market will go up, some won't, know location, location, location the 3 most important things in buying property.
If you are going to live there over 5 years get a fixed rate.
Always have at least, the very, very least 2 months living expenses in the bank, jar, piggy bank, where ever just have it.

The current scare in the market is going to make it a lot harder to buy and sell than it was, but that's not always a bad thing. Ugly facts are some people can't and never well be able to afford a house, they just don't have the discipline to be a home owner. You know like making the payments and managing a budget things like that.

But this too shall pass, and a wise man would take advantage of the bargain shopping in both real estate and the market ... there's gold in them there foreclosure and shaky markets.

I was happy when the bell rung, were you?
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Captain Tars Tarkas
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2008, 01:25:59 AM »

I think the housing market has a way to go to correct, so I would hold off on buying unless you plan to not move for 10 years. 


The adjustable rate losers are a mix of idiot home buyers, dishonest realitors (home prices will never go down), fraudulent mortgage brokers lying about income because it was never checked, home buyers looking to make a quick $100,000 selling their house in two years and not getting caught by the rate reset (many of these guys are the same ones now lying that they didn't understand adjustable mortgages), people thinking stainless steel appliances somehow add $30,000 to the value of a home, house flippers, and the crap explained here:  http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1242

all 100% unfettered dishonest greed that we will all be paying for! 
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indianasmith
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2008, 08:11:05 AM »

Mark down this date in history . . . .



I AGREE WITH TARS TARKAS!!!! BounceGiggle
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2008, 08:49:24 AM »

We put off buying a house during the housing boom, though we really wanted to finally buy, because it was just ridiculous.  We were living in a townhouse that had been built just four years before for about $170K, and the owner's buying price (if we wanted to buy) was $280K.  The shame was, compared to other asking prices in the neighborhood, that was an excellent deal - most were going for $300K or more.

If that sort of thing continued, after just a few years the middle class would not be able to afford buying a home.

We bought a home this year for $330K, which had been on the market for a year at over $400K.  Plenty of house for raising 3 children and us:  2500 sq ft, just under an acre of land, nice area, best public school district in the state, and we bought in DE (where I grew up).  Our taxes are just $1700 a year.  This we can afford, and continue to afford.

I'm currently stationed in Baltimore.  If we had bought a home over there, the same place would have been over $500K, and the taxes more like $3000 a year.

Oh, and I actually had a big row the day of closing with the agent, because suddenly a huge chunk of closing costs were added that had not been disclosed before.  If I paid them, I would have badly depleted our savings and not had enough to cover our bills for the next 2 months as we paid both mortgage and rent (we were still under a rental contract in our townhouse).  The agent made me mad, because she just wanted to make her commission.  She even threatened that "They will make you go to closing."  I blew up.  When it was over, the agent took a cut in her commission, and the seller took on some more of the closing costs.  Then we went to closing.

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