has anyone ever seen one of them do this (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4177766/Merrill-Lynch-says-rich-turning-to-gold-bars-for-safety.html)?
QuoteMerrill Lynch says rich turning to gold bars for safety
they've got turtles beat by a mile
(http://hitdawall.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/a-rod.jpg)
(http://sidereus.org/MONEY/images/01-gold-bar.jpg)
apparently they got Madoff right before he did this
In the last 20 years, gold has had a net growth of 4% barely keeping place with inflation. Gold is very volatile, it might double one year and drop twice as much the next.
Just because some people are rich, doesn't mean they are wise.
The thing that bothers me about people flocking to gold, or any precious metal, as an investment is that it drives the price up for the people who want to buy the stuff to enjoy it. I don't like to see, for example, a couple forking over extra dough for their wedding rings just because somebody else wants to stash gold away in his safe deposit box.
Not so much a financial opinion as one of values. As Burl Ives once said, "How do you measure its worth? Just by the pleasure it gives here on Earth."
demand is not really what is driving the gold price up. 2/3 of it is for jewelry. WHat is the main thingdriving the price up is that it's cost is denominated in american dollars and the american governmetn simply cannot stop spending and borrowing, thus the value oftheir currency drops and drops and drops.
Here's something to consider: in 2000, gold was $250 dollars an ounce and the DOW was at 10,000. that is a 40 to 1 ration. Today. Gold is at $850 dollars an ounce and the DOW is at 8,500. a ten to 1 ratio.
So our economy is a bit smaller and inflation is much much higher.
Quote from: AndyC on January 09, 2009, 10:09:05 PM
Not so much a financial opinion as one of values. As Burl Ives once said, "How do you measure its worth? Just by the pleasure it gives here on Earth."
Wow...
That's deep, Andy.
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/01/gold/larmer-text
QuoteLike many of his Inca ancestors, Juan Apaza is possessed by gold. Descending into an icy tunnel 17,000 feet up in the Peruvian Andes, the 44-year-old miner stuffs a wad of coca leaves into his mouth to brace himself for the inevitable hunger and fatigue. For 30 days each month Apaza toils, without pay, deep inside this mine dug down under a glacier above the world's highest town, La Rinconada. For 30 days he faces the dangers that have killed many of his fellow miners—explosives, toxic gases, tunnel collapses—to extract the gold that the world demands. Apaza does all this, without pay, so that he can make it to today, the 31st day, when he and his fellow miners are given a single shift, four hours or maybe a little more, to haul out and keep as much rock as their weary shoulders can bear. Under the ancient lottery system that still prevails in the high Andes, known as the cachorreo, this is what passes for a paycheck: a sack of rocks that may contain a small fortune in gold or, far more often, very little at all.
QuoteFor all of its allure, gold's human and environmental toll has never been so steep. Part of the challenge, as well as the fascination, is that there is so little of it. In all of history, only 161,000 tons of gold have been mined, barely enough to fill two Olympic-size swimming pools. More than half of that has been extracted in the past 50 years. Now the world's richest deposits are fast being depleted, and new discoveries are rare. Gone are the hundred-mile-long gold reefs in South Africa or cherry-size nuggets in California. Most of the gold left to mine exists as traces buried in remote and fragile corners of the globe. It's an invitation to destruction. But there is no shortage of miners, big and small, who are willing to accept.
Interesting article from National Geographic.
tars- I heard the authors of that article on NPR the other day.
one guy made the point that yes, it's a brutal life in the gold mines but if they weren't there they would be making pennies a day someplace else.
again, if the us governmetn could just stop spending and inflating it's currency gold would be at a more reasonable price and people would be less apt to do all this awful stuff to get it.
Quote from: lester1/2jr on January 10, 2009, 03:13:24 PM
again, if the us governmetn could just stop spending and inflating it's currency gold would be at a more reasonable price and people would be less apt to do all this awful stuff to get it.
Wrong .. it's not JUST the US! An while I don't agree with all these bailouts, everywhere. People have alway had and will always have a desire for gold, it goes back 1000's of years. So blaming the current government on the demand for gold is not logical. There is a much bigger world out there beyond our boarders.
Gold was getting pretty high in price in 2007 when I was buying wedding rings, that's before everything went crashing down. It is just interesting to see where things come from. The jewelers were not willing to give a deal on the bands but were more than willing to give a deal on the diamonds. The best investment for gold is to start up your own cashforgold company and just pay people pennies on the dollar for their own gold because individuals aren't allowed to sell gold to reprocessing plants, thus those commercials all over tv.
cheeze- I'm sorry that is not correct. demand for gold was no higher in 2000 when gold was 250 an ounce than it is now.
the ticker on CNBC has the gold price at every moment of the day and it moves more or less inversely to the dollar. that's a fact.
but yes, other countries also inflate their currencies. but the cost of gold is not denominated in those currencies it is in american dollars as per the bretton woods agreement
through most of our countries history gold was 20 an ounce. there was essentially no inflation. the trouble started with the creation of the federal reserve system, who's tom foolery inflated the stock amrket bubble of the 20's giving us the great depression.
the final nail was when nixon went of the gold standard in 1973, since then gold has gone up and down bu mainly up and will ikely go higher till the govenment goes back on the gold standard which god willing it will one day
I don't have time to reply in full right now ... but Nixon removed the FIXED PRICE ($35 oz) between 1968 and 1971, the Bretton Woods Agreement had more to do with values of currency relative to one another.
Gold like oil, silver, platinum is a openly traded commodity and subject to supply and demand more so than the intrinsic value of any give currency.
bretton woods made the dollar the currency used in trade, essentially. nixon removing the fixed price has caused or rather allowed the dollar to lose value. if he hadn't changed that the price of gold would be 35$ an ounce and the dollar would be worth 5 euros instead of like half a euro
ther is very little if any industrial demand for gold. cetainly not enough to justify going from 250 to 850 in a period of a couple years. I trade stocks for a living. I look at the charts everyday and believe me, the main factor in the gold price is the dollar and the main valuationary facotr in the dollar is how much the US spends and owes or is expected to owe or spend.
QuoteGold is a monetary metal whose price is determined by inflation, by fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. stocks, by currency-related crises, interest rate volatility and international tensions, and by increases or decreases in the prices of other commodities. The price of gold reacts to supply and demand changes and can be influenced by consumer spending and overall levels of affluence.
Gold is different from other precious metals such as platinum, palladium and silver because the demand for these precious metals arises principally from their industrial applications. Gold is produced primarily for accumulation; other commodities are produced primarily for consumption. Gold's value does not arise from its usefulness in industrial or consumable applications. It arises from its use and worldwide acceptance as a store of value. Gold is money.
It's really against my better judgment to say any more, and utterly futile in the face of fervent dead horse beating, but I can't stop myself. On the one hand, Lester is telling us that inflation and the value of the US dollar are the primary factors in determining the price of gold. Yet, on the other hand, he's quoting a document (from?) that basically tells us that gold is influenced by many factors, including inflation and the US dollar. Doesn't seem to reinforce the argument all that much.
OK, feel free to tell me I'm wrong because black is white and up is down and a complex set of circumstances is not nearly as convenient a villain as government excess and the demon inflation, which are, as we know, the root of all men's ills. I think we all got the message at least a dozen identical threads ago. My next post will be a picture of a dog.
Aw hell, why wait?
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8f/Yorkshire_Terrier_WA_Mozart_Dolce_Sinfonia.jpg)
Cute dog, may I feed it to mine?
(http://www.greatdogsite.com/admin/uploaded_files/1198059745rottweiler.jpg)
Ohhh, he's just a big sweetie! A bit drooly, but cute. I like Rotties.
Gold is. . . . . .
(http://pro.corbis.com/images/42-16749523.jpg?size=572&uid=%7B3DB4FBAC-A787-4AC0-8D3E-5CF283727F63%7D)
A really cool color for a Lab. .
Quote from: AndyC on January 11, 2009, 11:05:29 PM
Ohhh, he's just a big sweetie! A bit drooly, but cute. I like Rotties.
Of course he's drooly, he's looking at that tasty morsel. Little Yorkie snacks.
Actually they are big babies and they have no concept of how large they are, mine still believe they are lap dogs. Mine average 125 lbs. terrify people and they wouldn't hurt a thing.
I think this thread is now officially derailed.
Quote from: CheezeFlixz on January 12, 2009, 01:28:39 AM
I think this thread is now officially derailed.
You think? :teddyr:
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/Epagneul_Breton.jpg/800px-Epagneul_Breton.jpg)
QuoteLester is telling us that inflation and the value of the US dollar are the primary factors in determining the price of gold. Yet, on the other hand, he's quoting a document (from?) that basically tells us that gold is influenced by many factors, including inflation and the US dollar. Doesn't seem to reinforce the argument all that much.
first let me say you can feel free to disagree with me about anything. I welcome it so don't hjold back.
If I say that golds price is determined mainly by inflation and the value of the us dollar then produce a quote, sorry I didn't link the source it's a failrly generic explanation, saying that those are two of the factors how is that not reinforcing my point?
I said gold price was determined by the value of the dollar and so does the quote.
inflation is literally the adding of more dollars to the money supply. that's the only thing that inflation is.
NOw, gold DEMAND can be raised when there is alot of volatility and people think the dollar is GOING to fall.
here's an easier way of understanding it: gold buys about the same amount of stuff it always does. a carpenter got paid 20 dollars a week in 1914 or one ounce of gold. today a carpenter makes 20 or so dollars an hour or 800 dollars a week or roughly one ounce of gold. it just works out that way thugh not exactly
Quote from: lester1/2jr on January 12, 2009, 10:31:44 AM
first let me say you can feel free to disagree with me about anything. I welcome it so don't hjold back.
But don't expect a differing opinion to be respected. Honestly, backpedaling is the closest I've seen you come to agreeing to disagree with someone. Welcoming different points of view for a pleasant and lively discussion is one thing, welcoming them as a challenge, because you think you can shoot them all down is something else entirely. Differing opinions should move the discussion forward, leading it in different directions. In your threads, they invariably lead to bickering back and forth over the same point until everybody gets sick of it or Andrew is forced to lock the thread. I don't see the value in that.
If you're looking to discuss ideas, you're going to have to bend a little. If you're looking to 'educate' us or convert us to your way of thinking, I can only say 'no, thanks.'
Quote
If I say that golds price is determined mainly by inflation and the value of the us dollar then produce a quote, sorry I didn't link the source it's a failrly generic explanation, saying that those are two of the factors how is that not reinforcing my point?
Because that wasn't your original point. To say that those are two of many factors is a far cry from saying "if the us governmetn (sic) could just stop spending and inflating it's currency gold would be at a more reasonable price and people would be less apt to do all this awful stuff to get it." As for the source of the quote, if you are going to cite something as proof of your position, where it's from is important, just as a general rule. Not all sources are equal, and not all of your sources have been objective in the past. If it is just common knowledge, why put it in quotes, unless you mean to give it weight? If you want it to count as anything more than your own opinion, you need to identify your source.
I don't disagree with the quote, but I do
Quote
inflation is literally the adding of more dollars to the money supply. that's the only thing that inflation is.
Was that ever questioned?
Quote
NOw, gold DEMAND can be raised when there is alot of volatility and people think the dollar is GOING to fall.
I quite agree. However, it's not what you said originally. Indeed, you downplayed the role of nervous investors driving up the demand, and thus the price. You've been pretty specific about causes.
Quote
here's an easier way of understanding it: gold buys about the same amount of stuff it always does. a carpenter got paid 20 dollars a week in 1914 or one ounce of gold. today a carpenter makes 20 or so dollars an hour or 800 dollars a week or roughly one ounce of gold. it just works out that way thugh not exactly.
Well, that was patronizing. So, is your point that the price of gold hasn't really risen at all? Are you saying that inflation is bad because, in practice, the average income is not keeping pace with the cost of things (a reasonable concern, if supported), or that the amount of money in circulation has been, overall, exceeding the rate of economic growth (again, a reasonable concern), or maybe that there should be the same amount of money in circulation as there was in 1914, in spite of nearly a century of growth? That last one would be damned silly.
I'm just not seeing the point in posting these threads. You believe debt is bad, saving is good, inflation is somehow unnatural, and government policies are largely to blame. I got that a year ago. Since then, you've basically made the same points, supported by the same arguments. And your response to disagreement is to make the same points again, but more simply, because we obviously don't understand.
What you don't seem to understand is just how offensive that can be. I think it's safe to say that the regulars on this board are generally intelligent and well-informed, and have a wide range of education and experience. You should be showing everyone a little more respect.
Oh, I almost forgot.
(http://nicknackpaddywhack.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/scooby-doo-magnet-c11747661.jpeg)
QuoteIf you're looking to 'educate' us or convert us to your way of thinking, I can only say 'no, thanks.'
that's what a debate is. the person with the point left standing wins. I shoot down yours you shoot down mine.
QuoteI'm just not seeing the point in posting these threads. You believe debt is bad, saving is good, inflation is somehow unnatural, and government policies are largely to blame. I got that a year ago. Since then, you've basically made the same points, supported by the same arguments.
lol why are you participating in the thread if you feel this way? did someone tell you you HAD to?
QuoteTo say that those are two of many factors is a far cry from saying "if the us governmetn (sic) could just stop spending and inflating it's currency gold would be at a more reasonable price and people would be less apt to do all this awful stuff to get it."
no it's saying the same thing. that's the root of the problem, the us inflating it's currency. that causes the price of gold to rise and that causes people to go diving deep into scary unsafe mines in africa and south america to try and find it.
QuoteIf you want it to count as anything more than your own opinion, you need to identify your source.
I don't "have" to do anything. it's a message board not a new york times article
QuoteWhat you don't seem to understand is just how offensive that can be.
so you fill my thread with pictures of dogs and insult me?
Look, I happen to own gold. i track it by following the performance of the US dollar, mainly. go to www.321gold.com or www.kitco.com and I think you'l find most of the analysis is related to the dollar.
Im' sorry you don't happen to like this explanation but there aren't any others I'm aware of.
why do YOU think the price of gold is above 800 dollars an ounce ?
(http://www.semiconductorblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/gold_price_history_small.jpg)
OK, there were a number of ways you could have responded to that, and you picked the most likely. You're right and that's that. Makes for really good conversation.
Anyway, tell it to Skruffty. I hereby give up.
(http://www.welovebob.com/Images/characters/skruffty.jpg)
thanks for hijacking my thread out of animus to me and reality
Quotewhy do YOU think the price of gold is above 800 dollars an ounce ?
still waiting...
You're welcome.
(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2046/2207207734_c46fb1a22e.jpg?v=0)
And I never claimed to care why gold is $800 an ounce. I just offered advice on getting along with people.
If it makes you feel better, you are absolutely right, always, about everything. I am sorry to have ever questioned you. You are much smarter than anyone on this board in every way. Now, enjoy your thread, for all the discussion is likely to advance with only one correct opinion (sorry, I mean "reality"), already stated back at the beginning.
(http://www.dealbreaker.com/images/entries/comic%20book%20guy.jpg) "you're welcome. And I never claimed to care why gold is $800 an ounce. I just offered advice on getting along with people.
If it makes you feel better, you are absolutely right, always, about everything. I am sorry to have ever questioned you. You are much smarter than anyone on this board in every way. Now, enjoy your thread, for all the discussion is likely to advance with only one correct opinion (sorry, I mean "reality"), already stated back at the beginning."
Now that you mention it, you do remind me of Comic Book Guy.
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/47/Gadget_the_pug_expressive_eyes.jpg/800px-Gadget_the_pug_expressive_eyes.jpg)
wow. nice variation on "I know you are, but what am I?" there. Do you compose comebacks professionally? Can I hire you for the next time I get hassled for no reason on a discussion board?
This thread is done.