There's an interesting article I read today that suggests that within 5 years the disc format will be done with and everything will be strictly downloadable.
Go here to read the article then let us know what you think.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030903/music_nm/media_piracy_dc_1
NO WAY!!! AND I'VE JUST GOTTEN INTO DVD'S TOO NO FAIR!!
-the first rule of fat club-
I don't buy it. Not for any technological reason, but for reasons of human psychology (or maybe I'm just talking about my own psychology here): I think there will always be people who enjoy the actual ownership of a THING, a material object, especially a beautiful and/or well-made object. Many of the better-produced CDs and DVDs certainly fit this description and I would certainly miss them if they weren't available.
They'll get my vinyl when they pry 'em from my cold, dead fingers!
The reason the web hasn't replaced printed material is because it's hard to take your computer to the bathroom.
I imagine there's some similar prinicipal to be found in other forms of media
Gives new meaning to the phrase "data dump"....
I can see this being much the same as the old prediction that computers would eliminate the need for paper. They increased paper usage because it's so easy to print off copy after copy of documents, and people like paper documents. They're portable, they're comfortable to hold and read, easy to pass around.
I have a feeling that many people will still want to have their music and movies in some physical form, as Bernie suggested. I've put my entire collection on MP3 and pipe it throughout the house, but I'm more comfortable knowing I have the discs. I actually have more discs because of this technology, because I can whip off mixed CDs to play in the car almost as easily as printing documents.
It might be hard to convince people to pay the same price when they don't get something tangible. Theoretically, it would lower the price to save on manufacturing, shipping, and retailing. Then again, I can't see any companies dropping the price simply because their costs have gone down. It's also good to remember that most of the savings come from someone else's lost income.
It also seems almost dishonest that somebody could sell an unlimited number of something without paying any more himself.
There is definitely a feeling that things without physical form simply do not have the same value as real merchandise, hence the prevalence of file-sharing software, cracks, key generators and other such things. It's the mentality at the heart of cable and satellite theft for that matter.
Personally, I won't download anything I have to pay for. If I'm going to pay top dollar for software, I want at least a disc and a printed manual. I don't buy ebooks, and not just because most of the ones I've seen are crap anyway. I'll shop online, but only for tangible goods. I don't subscribe to pay sites either. I pay my service fee, and that's all I'll pay for what comes through my modem.
Maybe the next generation will feel differently, but this generation will be around longer than five years.
I can see dvd's and cds being replaced but only by some other form of media mini disk memory stick etc. As for me i will probally hold on to my collection of discs for a long long time.
Yea, I can see some wanting a nicely label thing that they can hold. Like any collection that is pleasing to the eye. Art work and the holding of the object.
For myself who am on a movie marathon I just would like to see all the significantly good and bad in film. Also I would like to own a copy of something for a collection, but I at this time don't need the packaging. (like that pizza hut give away) Those disk can be purchased at cheaper cost according to the buyings wishes. Casing, a sleeve, etc.
It has been a concern that the current technology will be replaced after we all invest are earned cash on something that will be out dated. VOD is good and depending on the collecting habits of the viewer will determine the "thing" that is held in possession.
I would like to see both the computer and access to entertainment reach its peak, so I can decide on what form(s) I would like to invest in. Technology at this time is moving so fast, yet so slow for some.
If flash memory cards, such as the kind in digital cameras, are standardized, and get more capacity and a lower price tag, I can see them being the next big thing. They're tiny, and the information is stored on a chip, making for fast recording and retrieval. Imagine getting a special edition movie with all the extras on a little plastic card the size of a postage stamp, and plugging it into a player the size of your wallet.
Yea, then getting a book of 10 stamps (movies) for $10. Chips will save the extra cost of packaging and shipping.
Screw that, you get no cool packaging. I'm a liner-notes man, plus I hate dicking around with my computer. If everyone downloads everything, there will be too much traffic, servers blowing up, no one will ever see anything. Screw this download crap. It won't happen. Everyone pick up the new Brian Lumley e-Book last Tuesday? Didn't think so.
Brother R
Technology marches on! It seems like it doesn't make sense to spend money on electronics these days. Everything becomes obsolete so quickly . . .
i agree that cds wont be replaced by purely digital media: i backup way too much stuff on discs, so i won't risk a virus wiping all my precious software. If everything was downloadable, i can imagine that we'd be hit with a pretty big virus pretty easily
and then the machines will take over
Bring on T4!
Hmm, coincidence that Arnie's running for governor of the state with most of the media in it? I want a physical done on him, just to ensure he's human.
I've held off replying in this thread until I could read what others have posted, and not only do I agree, but the general concensus seems to be:
This is a crock o' nonsense. To even THINK that downloading would EVER replace physically purchasing a DVD/VHS/CD is utter nonsense. Everything that others have said in their replies here is 100% right on the mark.
Now....I wouldn't deny that pay-to-download will become more prominent as time goes by. Let's face it: There's a hell of a lot one can do while online...you can basically do all your shopping (even for groceries!) without ever leaving your home....but downloading media as a side option for actually buying a DVD/VHS/CD/etc. likely won't expand too much until more people have faster digital connections as well as a CD/DVD burner as well.
Question for ASHTHECAT: Did you also post this same news story over on the SciFilm phorum? I ask because someone over there posted this exact same news right about the same time you did here.
Nope.
Wasn't me who posted it.
I've never been to that forum.
I think that story was written by someone completely out of touch with reality.
First, computer downloads will be limited to computer geeks who are willing to deal with software players, flaky downloads etc. Many people don't even have a computer much less paying $50 a month for the kind of high-speed access they'd need to download movies. Plus, even with a cable modem, it's not like you can download an entire movie instantly. Most people would rather grab a DVD and pop it into a player.
Video on demand - Great idea, instead of paying a single (albeit higher) price to own any movie available on video/DVD with all kinds of extras, you pay a price to watch a no-frills movie once, from a limited selection.
Not to mention that Hollywood and the music industry aren't exactly rushing to embrace downloadable content. They're too busy trying to figure out ways to make sure that they have absolute total control over what people do with the files.
I recall once reading an article that predicted that within a few years time, everyone would be buying low-cost dumb terminals instead of computers and that all software would be stored online and downloaded to your terminal on a pay-per-use basis. I think that was about 1990 or so...
<>
I remember that! And I couldn't believe how freaking idiotic it was!!
The other problem with a 100 percent downloadable format replacing all hard copies is the movie/music big industry. If anything, they would be adamently against this since they would have to significantly lower the price of music and movies. Plus, it is so much easier to replecate and distribute a download as opposed to a DVD/Cd.
In any case, I would much rather have downloads they are, easy to get and cheap, and hopefully, they will become a competitor to drive these oppfressive CD and DVD prices down.
A couple of other serious problems with downloadable media. If someone decides to mess with a movie, such as by colorizing Kansas in the Wizard of Oz, adding CGI to Star Wars or taking the guns out of ET, chances are that is going to be all that is available. There won't be thousands of copies of the original movie in circulation.
For that matter, is a company going to want to fill server space with an obscure, crappy 40-year-old movie, just for a few people like us who want to see it? There are still VHS copies of cheesy old movies floating around from the 80s, even though they are long out of print and few people even remember them. If they'd been exclusively downloadable, many of those titles probably wouldn't be available to us now.
Having movies, or any information, spread around in physical form is also much better in terms of preservation than having it stored in one place.
I still wish they would get rid of Pay per view and replace it with all you want rentals. Instead of just the standard 5-10 new releases to select, pay for and watch why not have every movie ever made available to rent at home? I'd love that, just do a search in the database for the movie I want and baddabing. Hopefully those days are coming and that will close the doors on blockbuster.
As for downloading, I hope not. My connection sucks and it would take eons.
I don't doubt they'll do away with the CD, i bet right now they already have another method. They'll milk the dvd craze for all it's worth and then phase it out for the next step..making everyone rebuild their damn movie collection once again. It's moved from the rhelm of technology simply advancing to companies strategically planning ways to make more money and screw john q. public. Willing to bet whatever it is will be very small and compact, like a chip. Why don't they come out with movies you can implant in people's brains? That way whenever I wanna watch Barbarella all I have to do is wiggle my earlobe and close my eyes...
>Why don't they come out with movies you can implant in people's brains? That
>way whenever I wanna watch Barbarella all I have to do is wiggle my earlobe
>and close my eyes...
But what happens if your earlobe itches while you're driving and you absentmindedy scratch it? :)
>>>But what happens if your earlobe itches while you're driving and you absentmindedy scratch it?<<<
Nothing compared to the women worldwide who would be staring into the blank..yet euphoric fases of boyfriends and husbands getting brain damage from boob flicks I guess. Nix that idea.....
20 years maybe [probably more like 25] but five years? No way. Computers aren't quite commonplace in the home yet--not to the point where they're like having a television or a telephone.
whilst i agree that it won't happen for a while, but cd's will get phased out eventually, when dvd recorders are cheap and easy to use, and you have one instead of a regular cd player.
one example is that videos are becoming fairly less common place now [i mean new ones; everything seems to be released on dvd nowadays], and i only use them to tape tv shows, but think about it: if dvd has that audio, it would be so much easier than having a vcr, a cd burner and all that crap. if it was all in one it would be a lot easier.
as for the whole download thing, alot of people in their teens download stuff. not just the geeks etc, though it won't become a powerhouse until connections speed up and become cheaper. but the net is too hard to control, there'll always be a way to get it for free, they might as well not bother trying to charge us.
death to big corporations.
just had a thought, wouldn't it be funny if downloading stuff for free got to a stage where it was just plain unprofitable to make cds, and they sort of just faded out... that would be very funny. i guess the only way to make money would be concerts.