Iran is NOT months away from a nuclear weapon

[ghouck]

 it's logically imopssible to be "months away" from making a nuclear bomb for more than couple of months.

I have a 1000 piece puzzle sitting on my table. It's finished, except for about a dozen pieces. It's been sitting there for four years. Now, with a straight face, tell me there's more than five minutes worth of work left on that puzzle.

it's like saying that because my new house is closer to a lake than my last house that my next home will logically be in the lake.

No, it's not. It's nothing like that. I don't know how you can compare the two.

[ER]

I've enjoyed this topic and it's been a blast---haha---reading over input from all sides. (Which definitely includes you, lester, even if I don't totally agree with you. Thanks for starting it up.  )

My quasi-official final thought on this matter is that however close Iran is to getting nuclear weapons, my worry is not that on day one (or day 1000) after getting them Iran is going to launch a strike against the United States or even Israel, a more realistic horror scenario is some disgruntled fanatic maybe years down the road managing to get bomb making materials, especially dirty bomb materials, into the hands of an organization that will gladly use them. A nation like Iran can be expected to have at least some constraints based on self-preservation if nothing else, but how can you restrain or bargain with a terrorist cell of fanatics who want nothing more than their own martyrdom, preferably obtained while assaulting Americans?

That's the innermost danger of Iran having nuclear technology. That's what will keep so many people up at night should Iran reach that point, as I do think it soon will.

[lester1/2jr]

ER-  meanwhile,   the only one to ever launch a chemical WMD attack on us was someone from our own government, the anthrax letter guy.  whatever.  if we want peopel to stop trying to bomb us we shuold stop invading and occupying their countries.  they come over her ebecause we're over there.

ghouck- I feel the point of the articles is to make the reader want to support bombing iran.   I don't see how this would make us any safer.  it would create more anger against us.  yes it wuold solve one problem, iran would not be a nuclear threat, but 9-11 wasn't a nuclear attack.  there are a thuosand of ways they can terrorize us without nuclear weapons. 

[ghouck]

ghouck- I feel the point of the articles is to make the reader want to support bombing iran.   I don't see how this would make us any safer.  it would create more anger against us.  yes it wuold solve one problem, iran would not be a nuclear threat, but 9-11 wasn't a nuclear attack.  there are a thuosand of ways they can terrorize us without nuclear weapons. 

At what point did I argue any of that?

[ER]

Hey, just one question for the road, please, lester.

"if we want peopel to stop trying to bomb us we shuold stop invading and occupying their countries.  they come over her ebecause we're over there."

Can you show me one period in history in which humans lived in amity, mutual tolerant respect and peace, making your statement  true?

Thanks in advance, bud. 

[lester1/2jr]

ghouck-  you and I have such a different wayu of debating it's almost ipossible for us to communicate.  isn't that interesting?

ER-  well,  that's my point.  we're never going to be free from the fear of annihilation, so we should not spend all of our time and money in trying to look over our shoulder all the time

[ghouck]

ghouck-  you and I have such a different wayu of debating

Thank You.

[ER]

We....are never going to be out of danger of annihilation...so we should...not not look out for ourselves? Assuming what you wrote wasn't a typo, then, shrug, you're entitled to your opinion. I guess your opinion of humankind's peaceful nature is higher than mine. Still, thanks for the reply to my question.

[lester1/2jr]

well,  all right let me clarify.  how do we actually look out for ourselves:  we are a nation that has a constant flow of immigrants, some legal some not from around the world.  we have tourism.  we have two huge and for the most part unprotected borders.   


So,  I'd say America as a nation, if I weere looking at it from another country as a consultant,  is pretty much undefendable from terrorism.


not all countries are.  you take israel.  they are small.  they have an apparatus to keep an eye on pretty much the entire border.  the only citizens there, outside of th ffew remaining arabs,  are all jewish and all have the same culture and so forth. 


this doesn't mean they are free from terror threats, I mean that's obvious.  but they are better able to defend themselves from it and thus can take more forward positions towards their enemies if they want.


So  look at our situation relative to theirs.  should we really be p**sing off terorrists?

ceertainly we have to have SOME security measures and even defnse measures,  but I don't like the ideea of relying on our government to protect us, nor do we have the money  to start all these wars!!

[ghouck]

So  look at our situation relative to theirs.  should we really be p**sing off terorrists?

I feel they've made it perfectly clear that our mere existence p!$$e$ them off. Should we all just commit suicide to please them?

[lester1/2jr]

"I feel they've made it perfectly clear that our mere existence p!$$e$ them off"


read the 9/11 report or any of michael scheur's books, he was the head of the CIA's bin laden unit.  read osama bin ladens ridiculous messages themselves.  they hate our foreign plicy not our "way of life". 

noam chomsky put it best they dn't hate us because they reject our principles but because they agree with them!  am i the only one who saw "red dawn" and cheered?

[ER]

I disagree. They hate our way of life as well as our foreign policies. They hate us, ourselves. They hate the fact we are not like them. They hate the fact that they cannot make us be as they are, or control us. They are ruled by hate, and hate takes people over and unbalances them. As for bin Laden's messages, which you're right, are ridiculous, in my opinion when bin Laden masterminded the murders of 3,500 civilians on September 11th his opinions as to America's supposed mistakes ceased to matter. I take that back. Long before then, after his first murders, he lost his right to criticize anyone.

Do you think, though, lester---and I'm asking sincerely, here---that if America changed in the ways you suggest it should, that we'd really have peace? Or that those who hate the US and the west would stop hating us?

I don't think hate works that way. Hate is as all-possessing as love, every bit as illogical, and maybe just as strong. I don't think it can be shut off that easily. The hate radical Islamists have for us is out of control.

Even if at times America's foreign policy has been imperfect and has resulted in giving those who hate us legitimate complaints, we still have to defend ourselves. Would it truly atone for anything to allow more Americans to be killed by terrorists? I don't think it would. And while we hopefully try to peacefully better our standing in the world, let's keep our guard up. Don't you think that's wise?

[lester1/2jr]

Do you think, though, lester---and I'm asking sincerely, here---that if America changed in the ways you suggest it should, that we'd really have peace? Or that those who hate the US and the west would stop hating us?

look, here's the problem:  it's not just terrorists who hate our foreign policy.  it's pretty much ALL muslims.


example:  the saudi people don't lke the saudi royal family.   the saudi army is garbage and can't defend itself because if they put together an army the size they would need it would turn and kill all the royal family most likely.


we support the saudi royal family,  for our own reasons.  so we are supporting a dictatorship that is despied by it's people.  same in egypt.


not surprisingly, most of the 9/11 hijackers came from these two countries. 



so no,  people like bin laden will never like the united states ofr  number of reasons.  but as i think mao said, the insurgnecy swims in the body of the people or something.


more to the point,  our foreign plicy isn't making us safer.  we haven't had any attacks since 9/11 but that' s mosyt liekly because all the jihadists are headed to iraq or afghanistan.  those wars have to end someday.  and no matter how many terrorist we kill they'll make more.  in syria the govenment has something called a "family medal"  that's given to you if you have 12 kids or something. 


so terrorism and potential terrorists can't be squashed like cockroaches.  and they don't "respond to force"  we've given them force since 9/1 and there is no abating the number of terrorists ready to come and die. 


you can't win a p**sing contest with a skunk right?  how many more cliches can I use here?

[ghouck]

So is that a no or a yes. I see your point about us having different debating methods: I can count at least 4 places where you won't answer a question presented to you. You're sounding more like a politician with every post. You said it yourself, "Your enemy is the Government". It shows. .

By the way, you think maybe the reason Muslims hate our foreign policy might have something to do with their religion expressing that non-Muslims be eradicated? Think maybe you're playing right into their hands by believing their hate is based on our foreign policy? Oh wait, you already avoided that question once, please disregard. 

more to the point,  our foreign plicy isn't making us safer.  we haven't had any attacks since 9/11 but that' s mosyt liekly because

Most likely? Have you ever heard the term "weasel wording"?

read the 9/11 report or any of michael scheur's books, he was the head of the CIA's bin laden unit.  read osama bin ladens ridiculous messages themselves.  they hate our foreign plicy not our "way of life".

No, it's our way of life. All the things their younger people want, that we have and they don't, is what they hate about us.

[lester1/2jr]

No, it's our way of life. All the things their younger people want, that we have and they don't, is what they hate about us

so you dont need to read what the 9/11 commision wrote or  what the people who study bin laden wrote. 






you have no actual information but you can draw the correct conclusion from "your own ass" as they say.

Think maybe you're playing right into their hands by believing their hate is based on our foreign policy?

I 'm pretty sure when we sanctioned Iraq and the people , rather than the dictator,  suffered,  that a normal person would dislike rather than like that.  If I were unable to get medical supplies and saddam hussein was i would not see this as a good policy for me personally. 

thus, it's isn't hard for me to imagine that it is our foreign policy not, say, our right to a speedy trial or other elements of our "way of life"  that muslims hate. 


have you ever talked to any muslims about these issues?  check out www.shiachat.com or other discussion boards.  don't listen to me or any "experts"  see for yourself.    thoseare the people we are talking about, they aren't abstractions