Political Thread

Flick James · January 12, 2012, 11:01:02 AM

If you're not interested, move on.

I very much want Obama to be defeated in the next presidential election. If you don't, or are an Obama supporter, I promise, you will receive no flaming from me in this thread, as that is not my intent. This is simply my current observation of the Republican race.

I am not Republican, but I recently registered as one so I can vote for Ron Paul in the primaries. Based on what I've seen of the Republican race, I see Ron Paul, who is likely not to get the nomination sadly, as the only one that can surely defeat Obama in the main race. Most of the other candidates may be front-runners ahead of Paul amongst Republicans, but there are factors that make me believe that Paul might actually do better in a general presidential election. Here are some of the factors I consider:

One, he is very smart. His answers to questions are usually sharp and well-measured.

Two, he is well-respected. He may not be the Republican favorite, but he is generally well-respected, even by many Democrats, for his experience, integrity, and smarts. He is one of the few Republicans who can appear with Bill Maher or John Stewart and be treated with the same respect as liberal guests. Yet, he is stauchly pro-capitalist. If he won the nomination, he would certainly steal some liberal votes that would have gone to Obama, get the lion's share of the moderate vote, and of course, he's going to get EVERY Republican vote.

Three, he is virtually immune to scandal. He has always had a very "my life is an open book" posture. He has nothing to hide. You won't see any scandals, at least none that anybody will take seriously, about Ron Paul.

Four, in my opinion, he is the only candidate that would absolutely bury Obama in a Presidential Debate, and that's even taking into account Obama's superior public-speaking skills. He is the only one that I believe the public would take seriously about wanting to do something about the Washington stalemate that is continuing the strangle the U.S. economy.

This is my personal analysis of the situation. I don't think Romney or Gingrich would defeat Obama. Laugh if you want to. Say that people want Obama out of the office all you want. But just wait until the main race starts heating up and we start hearing Barack "golden tonsils" Obama start doing his thing. His speeches are like magic and are a profound influence on the equation. Afterall, if you said to anybody 9 months before the last presidential election that Obama was going to make it to the White House, most of them would say you were dreaming.

Granted I have been a Ron Paul supporter from the outset, so I cannot deny my bias. This is my observation at the moment. I'm not specifically trying to rally support for Ron Paul, although I wouldn't mind if I did. I also would like to see what others think of the race. I'm sure flaming and political posturing are likely in responses, but I just want to make it clear what MY intentions are. Yes, I'm a Paul supporter, but also that this is intended to be an analysis of who among the Republicans would stand the best chance of winning the presidency, even if you're not a Republican. If any flame wars get started, it won't be from me. I promise.

ulthar · January 12, 2012, 11:55:43 AM

I heard an interview with Walter Jones (who I really like) on the radio last week. He said that of all the Republicans in the mix, Paul is singularly the most qualified to address the nation's problems. Given his 'druthers,' Jones said he'd support Paul.

Having said that, he did go on to say that he will endorse whoever gets the nomination. He believe that would be Romney, and while he will "endorse" Romney, I sense some hesitation in him on this point. He was 'political' in his wording and was trying very hard not to anything against Romney.

I think you and I will agree that this election, like most of them, is NOT about who will do the best job. It's a popularity contest based on who has hired the best consultants and speech writers, along with 'image.'

As much as is going wrong these days and as much as people complain about Obama (and what he's done while in office), I am not convinced at all that he will be defeated in November. I think Paul is the best choice - for a host of reasons - but, I too doubt he'll get the Party Nod...maybe precisely because he IS the best choice.

Conflict sells, especially in news circles and politics.

tracy · January 12, 2012, 01:50:20 PM

This is a very confusing year for me. I have yet to settle on a candidate to support. I didn't vote for Obama last time,for moral reasons,and none of the Republicans appeal to me. I despise having to "settle" because I try hard to analyze everyone for the best person for the job. My own governor is running and I couldn't be paid enough to back him. I'm a Moderate Independant so party is nowhere near as important to me as views and background qualifications. Man....this is gonna be tough!

Flick James · January 12, 2012, 01:52:23 PM

I agree with you in the assessment that Ron Paul is the most qualified, especially when it comes to economic recovery. His level of expertise in economics is unmatched among any of the potentials.

I understand the Republicans have their favorites, but my primary point is that I firmly believe that, despite me feelings on his qualifications, I think he is the most ideal opponent of Obama. If the Reps want to win, they have to accept that none of the Rep hopefuls are going to win head-to-head with Obama when it comes to oratory. They are simply out-matched. Paul's eloquence of ideas and delivery of those ideas are what set him apart against Obama. That's my view. I don't doubt some would differ.

ulthar · January 12, 2012, 02:56:10 PM

Quote from: Flick James on January 12, 2012, 01:52:23 PM

That's my view. I don't doubt some would differ.

I don't disagree with you. I remain puzzled why the party leadership (not that I really care about The Party, but they are the ones, after all, who bolster their pet nominee) cannot see this, and why they insist on focusing on things that in the end will cost the election, not win it.

From a political study perspective, personal voting views aside, it's a fascinating phenomenon.

As a voter and tax payer, it's downright infuriating.

lester1/2jr · January 12, 2012, 05:51:19 PM

I would probably agree with mr walter Jones. I am a big Ron paul supporter but he won't get the nomination and I will probably vote for Romny if I bother to vote. I haven't really looked at Gary johnson though.

indianasmith · January 12, 2012, 06:14:12 PM

Most everybody here knows that I'm a right winger, so I'm pretty much an "anybody but Obama" kind of guy.

But Ron Paul's foreign policy stances scare the hell out of me. Iran is bent on getting a nuclear weapon and using it to trigger the global war that will bring about the coming of the Twelfth Imam. That is some twisted, evil stuff, and I don't believe Paul would do a thing to stop it. His isolationism reminds me too much of the more extreme Republicans in the run up to World War II, who were willing to let every Jew in Europe go to the ovens rather than see America intervene in "Europe's mess."

I believe in an America that is willing to stand up to evil, and I am not sure that Ron Paul recognizes evil for what it is.

ulthar · January 12, 2012, 07:19:55 PM

Quote from: indianasmith on January 12, 2012, 06:14:12 PM

Most everybody here knows that I'm a right winger, so I'm pretty much an "anybody but Obama" kind of guy.

But Ron Paul's foreign policy stances scare the hell out of me. Iran is bent on getting a nuclear weapon and using it to trigger the global war that will bring about the coming of the Twelfth Imam. That is some twisted, evil stuff, and I don't believe Paul would do a thing to stop it. His isolationism reminds me too much of the more extreme Republicans in the run up to World War II, who were willing to let every Jew in Europe go to the ovens rather than see America intervene in "Europe's mess."

I believe in an America that is willing to stand up to evil, and I am not sure that Ron Paul recognizes evil for what it is.

I too get to claim the "right winger" status, but I guess the foreign bit does not scare me AS badly right now. As my wife put it, he could always get a strong foreign policy running mate and have a strong cabinet. Or not...

Another point Walter Jones made, exactly on this topic regarding Paul's foreign policy stance, is that if we don't fix the domestic stuff SOON, foreign policy will be moot.

I think it's about priorities, though I confess that there is no clear cut path.

What a mess....if you think about it too much, you'll go crazy.

lester1/2jr · January 12, 2012, 09:00:31 PM

US bases around Iran

if that's not containment I don't know what is.

Indiana- Of course you disagree with his foreign policy but he has some nice consolation prizes for other types of conservatives.

ulthar · January 12, 2012, 10:23:06 PM

A friend of mine shipped out to Afghanistan tonight. Another left two months ago.

Not really pertinent to the discussion, I guess...but, well, please keep these guys in your thoughts and prayers.

indianasmith · January 12, 2012, 11:22:29 PM

It's a dangerous place and a godawful mess. I'm not sure what the solution is, but the Taliban is NOT a viable solution. Their ideology is nothing less than opposition to civilization itself. Of course, we could liquidate the population and give the land to the Palestinians, eliminating two problems at once . . . .

(NOT a serious policy recommendation, BTW!)

Flick James · January 13, 2012, 09:50:53 AM

I'm just proposing a hypothetical discussion about the upcoming election and an analysis of how I think it would play out. I am NOT trying to start a policy debate. Please make your best efforts NOT to make it one.

Rev. Powell · January 13, 2012, 09:55:22 AM

Quote from: Flick James on January 13, 2012, 09:50:53 AM
I'm just proposing a hypothetical discussion about the upcoming election and an analysis of how I think it would play out.

My view: Romney will get the Republican nomination rather easily, and defeat Obama rather easily.

Flick James · January 13, 2012, 11:16:19 AM

Quote from: Rev. Powell on January 13, 2012, 09:55:22 AM
Quote from: Flick James on January 13, 2012, 09:50:53 AM
I'm just proposing a hypothetical discussion about the upcoming election and an analysis of how I think it would play out.

My view: Romney will get the Republican nomination rather easily, and defeat Obama rather easily.

And it may be a simple as that. I'm just not so sure. There's this nagging memory of 2008 when, at this same juncture before the election, I don't think very many people actually thought Obama would make it to the White House. Yet, once he starts talking, it's like a spell. Even now, if he addresses the nation, although I don't approve of his administration, he is inspirational. He carries himself remarkably well. I also remember the 2008 Presidential Debates. I'm not an enormous fan of John McCain as a politician, but as an American I respect him a great deal, and I think in general he commands a great deal of respect. In the 2008 debates Obama almost made him look foolish. That's no reflection on him regarding policies, simply how it came across. These things affect votes. Obama is an incredibly smart talker. It would not surprise me in the slightest if he was successfully able make the claim that he has done everything in his power to help America and the Republicans have done nothing but stand in his way, and make it stick. Maybe it is as you say, but I'm not so sure.

I think that if the Republicans want to win, they have to stop worrying about what candidate best represents the conservative rank and file buzzwords and get the man in there that will be the best opponent against Obama. I break the voters into three primary groups:

Conservative/Republican: It doesn't matter WHO wins the nomination, they will get every one of those votes. No dyed-in-the-wool Republican is going to vote for Obama. Those votes are locked.

Liberal/Democrat: I don't care how unsuccessful one may see the Obama adminstration, there's no way the lib/dems are going to vote for either Romney or Gingrich, unless there are a whole lot of Mormon Democrats (in Romney's case) but I doubt that's the case. There may be a very slim number who will not vote for Obama, or would vote third-party, but would NOT vote for Romney or Gingrich. Ron Paul, on the other hand, I am confident would pull in some lib/dem votes that would have gone to Obama. He is the only candidate who can do that.

Moderate: This group comprises moderates and everybody who only leans slightly left or right. I believe these votes would overwhelmingly be Ron Paul's. I don't think there would be any contest, whereas with Romney or Gingrich I'm not so sure. These are the people who are going to be swept away once Obama gets to talking. These are the people who made sure he got elected in the first place.

In my opinion, and this is just my opinion, I see Romney as maybe winning, but also very possibly losing, whereas I see Ron Paul as a landslide victory.

Rev. Powell · January 13, 2012, 11:38:55 AM

Quote from: Flick James on January 13, 2012, 11:16:19 AM
I see Ron Paul as a landslide victory.

Wow, I see Paul as a landslide loss against Obama. Paul inspires devotion in his followers. But from what I can tell liberals absolutely hate him and would turn out in droves to vote against him. I also see him as having zero appeal to moderates or swing voters. He would bring out a few people he normally would not vote at all, but not enough to overcome his negatives.

I personally haven't met anyone in real life, Republican or Democrat, who supports Paul. I have met a lot of people who either dislike him or think he's not a serious candidate.

I'm not saying I disagree with Paul's ideas, just saying as a practical matter I don't see him as a viable candidate.