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Author Topic: The Crazy SOB Actually Did it!  (Read 73731 times)
Morpheus, the unwoke.
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« Reply #435 on: November 03, 2022, 05:45:51 PM »

The leader of Russia is not the man today that he was in the past, not only owing to personal factors such as the infirmities brought on by age, but because he has ruled by terror within his own government for so long that there are few voices near him speaking either an opposing viewpoint or an unpopular one, which has led to Putin making decisions from a place that hasn't aligned with reality. Yes-men confirming his personal biases created expectations which reality did not support. In short the way Russia's war has unfolded has been contrary to Putin's expectations. For years the Kremlin has been a place out of step with actual reality, and now the world sees it.

I've heard the same thing, and that pooty is now killing his own close supporters for lying to him even tho he bubbled himself with them and they only told him good things while they were gutting the Russian military and much of it's industry.

Ironically this is one area where he's done pretty much the opposite of Hitler, because poots surrounded himself with former KGB he who he saw as 'loyal' (HAW!) to himbecausethey told him he was right while they gutted Russia economically and industrially.

Hitler had generals who told him the damn truth about how incredibly wrong he was strategically and he ignored them, then fired them when his insane doomed strategies failed.
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lester1/2jr
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« Reply #436 on: November 03, 2022, 09:07:07 PM »

you guys are LARPing as russia experts.  as if any of us could have the slightest idea of what he thinks or what is going on in his sessions with subordinates.
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ralfy
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« Reply #437 on: November 04, 2022, 01:31:28 AM »

He stopped with the regions dominated by Russian speaking people because his troops are getting their arses kicked. If he could have, he'd have taken the whole thing, but a combination of under prepared troops, too few numbers of men used (standard protocol says he should have used a force three times as large as he did in the initial invasion. You attack with a force three times the size of the defending army, not one more or less equal in size). The only way his invasion plan makes any sense to me is if they'd expected the Ukrainians to not fight back at all, either collapsing early on in the attack or even welcoming the invaders in.

It's probably because he's not using WMDs, e.g., bombers and missiles. As I pointed out earlier, I recall a former U.S. military general interviewed by one outlet during the early weeks of the war, and he pointed out that if that were the U.S. the war would have ended on Day One. That's because the U.S. would have bombed Ukraine back to the stone age. Given such circumstances, force size won't matter. If you don't believe me, check out what happened to the Iraqis during the first Gulf War.

Another problem is that unlike the U.S., not only Russia but even China are not prepared for war. The U.S. has been able to hone its war skills by attacking multiple countries, all weak ones, for decades:

https://sites.evergreen.edu/zoltan/interventions/

It can do that because unlike Russia and even China it has over 800 military bases and installations worldwide, several encircling Russia and China and others used for decades to set up schools to train right-wing death squads in South America (e.g., the School of the Americas), help local military forces set up low intensity conflict in others (e.g., hamletting, zoning, and search-and-destroy operations coupled with "winning hearts and minds"), etc. Those were paid for using the biggest military budget in the world (it's bigger than those of the other military powers combined), and the costs passed on to the U.S. public who mostly can't even point out the countries that the U.S. invaded on a map, or even give the basic facts about major wars in which their country participated in, from the Revolution to the Civil War to even both World Wars. That's why they appear to be divided about this, with Biden's low ratings and their complaints that financial aid that should be going to them are going to Ukraine.

Why, then, did Russia decide to attack Ukraine, did not follow the U.S. in using WMDs, and held only areas dominated by Russians? Here are my guesses:

1. They know that the U.S. and NATO won't retaliate as long as they don't go beyond those territories, and they can justify the invasion that way. Also, they believe that if they go too far then many countries will stop trading with them, especially China.

2. If the U.S. ups military aid to Ukraine, then the U.S. public will complain, arguing that that aid should be going to them, and this will weaken Biden even more. This can also be seen in light of high levels of divisiveness in the states, with Biden's low ratings, etc.

3. They are relying on the U.S. (which reportedly only has a few weeks of diesel left) and the EU to weaken in their stance as they begin to realize that trade, especially over oil and gas, has to resume. Their own allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, raised that early on. OTOH, the U.S. can probably do both, i.e., send more troops (even though recruitment in their military is plummeting as most U.S. youths are not interested or qualified to serve in the military, and according to the military itself, in most careers due to obesity, illnesses, low test scores, mental problems, and vices) or provide more money while businesses are allowed to continue deals with both Ukraine and Russia.

4. They probably think that more are now aware of what the U.S. was doing to and with Ukraine from 2004 onward, e.g., the manipulated revolutions (also attempted in Thailand and HK), i.e., covert funding of pro-U.S. protesters and social media, the U.S. media which has been dishing out pro-war sentiments against countries that go against U.S. ideals of democracy, and all part of neoconservative and neoliberal views promoted by each Presidency since Reagan.

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ralfy
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« Reply #438 on: November 04, 2022, 01:37:20 AM »

The leader of Russia is not the man today that he was in the past, not only owing to personal factors such as the infirmities brought on by age, but because he has ruled by terror within his own government for so long that there are few voices near him speaking either an opposing viewpoint or an unpopular one, which has led to Putin making decisions from a place that hasn't aligned with reality. Yes-men confirming his personal biases created expectations which reality did not support. In short the way Russia's war has unfolded has been contrary to Putin's expectations. For years the Kremlin has been a place out of step with actual reality, and now the world sees it.

The same is probably also happening in the states, with Biden's low ratings and more economic problems in store. But it's not just Biden: most U.S. Presidents have been following Wall Street for decades, which controls the U.S. economy and wants the government to make sure that the petrodollar is kept propped up.

Meanwhile, I get this feeling that Russia was not planning to take over Ukraine and instead occupy only parts of it, especially the eastern part and Crimea. It's possible that if they took control of the whole area they would lose support from most countries, which today remain neutral, wanting to maintain trade with both Ukraine and Russia.

Before all that, I sense that the U.S. was trying to maintain its grand chessboard strategy of encircling Russia and China, which is why it needed to manipulate Ukraine. It was also trying similar with Thailand and HK but didn't succeed.
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ralfy
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« Reply #439 on: November 04, 2022, 01:44:17 AM »

can't believe there is still an appetite for trying to bring "democracy" to russia or something. Our country is 30 trillion dollars in debt, we just got through a massive era defining plague (some of still not quite through it) and now inflation is rampant. I'd prefer to see say 10 million more Americans with health insurance rather than Russians having the right to a speedy trial or something. they seem mostly content now and the ones who aren't are totally free to leave.

I was thinking the same thing. The idea of bringing democracy to other countries was put to the forefront by Reagan, through neoconservatism (the belief that the U.S. should use its military to force other countries to be free, but in the process prop up pro-U.S. governments) and neoliberalism (the belief that countries should force open their economies in the name of freedom, and in the proces be open for exploitation by stronger economies, like that of the U.S.). That's why it has to spend a lot on its military and has to make sure that most countries rely on the dollar for trade. Otherwise, the heavy borrowing and spending scheme (which is also needed to support high military costs) that started growing significantly in the early 1980s could no longer continue.

About the latter point, the U.S. now has total debts of something like $70 trillion, and it has in addition almost $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities. The only way it can even cover the interest on that debt is to borrow more money. That, in turn, can only take place if most countries worldwide remain weak and continue to rely on the dollar.

Meanwhile, many of these weak countries have become stronger economically and are now answering back at the U.S.

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ER
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« Reply #440 on: November 04, 2022, 04:55:22 AM »

you guys are LARPing as russia experts.  as if any of us could have the slightest idea of what he thinks or what is going on in his sessions with subordinates.

Well, les, haven't you spent the last year in here going against conventional thought, posting as if you have some special insight into Putin's brain and inner circle, saying most people had it wrong and Russia's invasion of Ukraine was because Putin felt threatened by NATO? That seems to be a minority view, to say the least, and kinda makes you callin' the kettle, you know? What I posted actually was an informed opinion that had been told to me by someone who actually analyzes the world situation for a living, and I thought his insights were interesting enough to share. If he's a "LARP-er" he's one who gets paid a lot to be one. In the end what's true of Russia will be true despite what we armchair generals post on a message board. (Also, remember, counter ideas, don't attack a person.)
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Alex
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« Reply #441 on: November 04, 2022, 09:26:41 AM »

you guys are LARPing as russia experts.  as if any of us could have the slightest idea of what he thinks or what is going on in his sessions with subordinates.

Well, les, haven't you spent the last year in here going against conventional thought, posting as if you have some special insight into Putin's brain and inner circle, saying most people had it wrong and Russia's invasion of Ukraine was because Putin felt threatened by NATO? That seems to be a minority view, to say the least, and kinda makes you callin' the kettle, you know? What I posted actually was an informed opinion that had been told to me by someone who actually analyzes the world situation for a living, and I thought his insights were interesting enough to share. If he's a "LARP-er" he's one who gets paid a lot to be one. In the end what's true of Russia will be true despite what we armchair generals post on a message board. (Also, remember, counter ideas, don't attack a person.)

ER, you beat me to it, although I'd say military expert rather than Russia (and since I have over 2 decades of experience in that field, I think I don't have to LARP it either).
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lester1/2jr
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« Reply #442 on: November 04, 2022, 02:39:06 PM »

Quote
saying most people had it wrong and Russia's invasion of Ukraine was because Putin felt threatened by NATO? That seems to be a minority view, to say the least,

I can absolutely prove my point of view pointing to dozens of experts from George kennan and henry Kissinger to  putins own public statements himself. which i've done repeatedly in this thread.

here is a massive list of quotes from foreign policy experts saying the same exact thing I'm saying https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592


the idea that people would put any credence in state department talking points after iraq is incredible to me. and un American. we are supposed to be a nation that learns from its mistakes and applies critical thinking to things

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Alex
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« Reply #443 on: November 04, 2022, 06:21:08 PM »

Makes you wonder why Putin was so keen to join NATO himself and why at Russia's request a pathway for his country to join was laid out.
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lester1/2jr
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« Reply #444 on: November 04, 2022, 09:12:25 PM »

Maybe because he thought the "they Live" esque worldwide elites actually wanted peace?

Look, russia is a crappy country. So was Iraq. crappy countries have bad presidents and terrible laws. The US is the best country but we shouldn't ATTACK crappy ones, we should lead by example. What has isolating Cuba done but prolong the ridiculous system of socialism? having free trade w/ them would have ended all that decades ago. We're on the wrong path with all this stuff , Alex.
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ralfy
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« Reply #445 on: November 05, 2022, 12:24:52 AM »

Quote
saying most people had it wrong and Russia's invasion of Ukraine was because Putin felt threatened by NATO? That seems to be a minority view, to say the least,


I can absolutely prove my point of view pointing to dozens of experts from George kennan and henry Kissinger to  putins own public statements himself. which i've done repeatedly in this thread.

here is a massive list of quotes from foreign policy experts saying the same exact thing I'm saying https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592


the idea that people would put any credence in state department talking points after iraq is incredible to me. and un American. we are supposed to be a nation that learns from its mistakes and applies critical thinking to things




Thanks for sharing that. I was going to mention John Mearsheimer in a subsequent post. His 2015 lecture is notable:

Error 404 (Not Found)!!1 Small | Large

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ralfy
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« Reply #446 on: November 05, 2022, 12:51:49 AM »

Maybe because he thought the "they Live" esque worldwide elites actually wanted peace?

Look, russia is a crappy country. So was Iraq. crappy countries have bad presidents and terrible laws. The US is the best country but we shouldn't ATTACK crappy ones, we should lead by example. What has isolating Cuba done but prolong the ridiculous system of socialism? having free trade w/ them would have ended all that decades ago. We're on the wrong path with all this stuff , Alex.

I'd like to add to these points:

Some say that in order to ensure that its economy continues to grow, the U.S. needs to be engaged in conflict in one place or the other; in short, perpetual warfare. That's because it invests heavily in the defense industry and the military, and such investments and costs cannot be justified unless they are used. Of course, following what military powers did throughout the Cold War conflict should involve proxy wars, i.e., those who are powerful using weaker countries as battlegrounds. This minimizes the number of U.S. lives lost.

The idea that the U.S. is the best country is part of exceptionalism:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_exceptionalism

which argues that all countries should be like the U.S. by promoting individual liberties, democracy, and free markets.

It's connected to neoconservatism:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoconservatism

which argues that the U.S. should not be pacifist but aggressive in defending those principles, meaning it should use foreign policies and military force to make countries follow what the U.S. promotes. Given that, its military force obviously has to be very powerful, which is why the country has to take on tremendous amounts of debt (passed on to the public) to pay for that military.

It's also connected to neoliberalism:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism

which calls for all countries to be free economically. That unwittingly allows the U.S. and other rich countries to exploit the natural resources and cheap labor of these countries.

A leader known to promote exceptionalism through both neoconservatism and neoliberalism was Ronald Reagan. He was joined by Margaret Thatcher and others, and later subsequent Presidents from both political parties did the same.

What's not mentioned is the actual reason for exceptionalism, and that has to do with the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. That is, all countries need to use the dollar for trade because their own currencies might not be stable. At the same time, this makes the U.S. immensely powerful because with the same dollar it creates through debt it can buy many things cheap worldwide. The same dollar creation can also be used to prop up the "American dream" or the "American way of life," which is connected to exceptionalism itself: the U.S. is the greatest country in the world because its citizens are rich and happy, and it can lead all of the other countries so that they can have the same. But to do that, they have to open up their economies for trade (which involves using the dollar for the same) and with that have governments that promote freedom.

And there's the connection: by forcing countries to be free, they actually become more dependent on the U.S., which the U.S. needs in order to create more credit it needs to prop up the "American dream" and high military costs. The same military together with foreign policies are used to make sure that these countries toe the line.

But how to convince the U.S. public about that? Media has to show that all other countries are at best crappy, especially those who question it. Only the U.S. is the best and everyone should aspire to be like it. Those who don't are the enemy.

That's why Reagan referred to the Soviet Union and its allies as the "evil empire." Later, Dubya referred to the "axis of evil." In both case, an unconditional choice is involved: either you are with the U.S., or you are for the terrorists. There is no middle ground.

This also explains why after the Vietnam War mainstream media eventually became the cheerleaders of the government, and both funded by Wall Street. Movies, TV shows, and other media depicted those who went against the U.S. as the enemy. That way, the public would never question what the government was doing.

Another thing that's barely mentioned is the point that the U.S. received support from these weak countries not only by destabilizing or invading them but also later propping up regimes that are friendly to the U.S., including those of Pinochet, the Shah of Iran, and others.

Finally, about Cuba, I found out that even with the trade embargo imposed by the U.S. it managed to make its economy grow by 400 pct the last two decades, from $25 billion in 1998 to $100 billion by 2018. That's equivalent to a growth rate of around 10 pct per annum, much higher than U.S.-style democracies like the Philippines could accomplish. Also, it surprisingly has many factors that are as good as or exceed that of the U.S., from low infant mortality rates to high levels of education to quite good health care to numbers of doctors and scientists engaged in science and technology. In fact, it appears to do better overall than pro-U.S. Philippines.

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Alex
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« Reply #447 on: November 05, 2022, 03:13:22 AM »

Maybe because he thought the "they Live" esque worldwide elites actually wanted peace?

Look, russia is a crappy country. So was Iraq. crappy countries have bad presidents and terrible laws. The US is the best country but we shouldn't ATTACK crappy ones, we should lead by example. What has isolating Cuba done but prolong the ridiculous system of socialism? having free trade w/ them would have ended all that decades ago. We're on the wrong path with all this stuff , Alex.

I agree with you that the US policy towards Cuba is redundant. I agree that you shouldn't just attack a country because it is crappy. The rest of what you say, not so much.
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ER
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« Reply #448 on: November 05, 2022, 12:44:45 PM »

I wish there was as much passion for helping those displaced by this war (who are facing a hard winter) as there is for debating the conflict over a keyboard.
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lester1/2jr
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« Reply #449 on: November 05, 2022, 02:34:23 PM »

Ralfy - ehhh even raul Castro has admitted that besides of the sanctions Cuba has serious problems. socialism is inherently a limiting system, really no place for ambitious sort of people. Like most of the countries down there, they have very very nice beaches and make most of their $$ that way. Providing absurd luxury to fatcat capitalists from all over the world!



So much of what we've see since 2016 is a reaction to trump and the fear that he will steer the whole world into an iceburg.  Meanwhile, Biden has us back in the cold war and on the edge of a nuclear disaster.

Biden is the psycho everyone thought Trump was gonna be


« Last Edit: November 05, 2022, 03:17:20 PM by lester1/2jr » Logged
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