The Crazy SOB Actually Did it!

[lester1/2jr]

What do people think will probably happen?

I think Zelensky is going through the motions of trying to get the US involved, but our hands are tied. We are a NATO member and its game over if we go in there.

I think Putin's rabid dog routine will work and Ukraine will eventually agree to not enter NATO in some sort of face saving way, like a 30 year moratorium on it.

Russia will head back home leaving some infrastructure in the pro Russia areas and western nations will fund reconstruction. It will take another month before this happens because of politics

this isn't necessarily what I would like to happen but I can see it going that way.

[Jim H]

What do people think will probably happen?

I think Zelensky is going through the motions of trying to get the US involved, but our hands are tied. We are a NATO member and its game over if we go in there.

I think Putin's rabid dog routine will work and Ukraine will eventually agree to not enter NATO in some sort of face saving way, like a 30 year moratorium on it.

Russia will head back home leaving some infrastructure in the pro Russia areas and western nations will fund reconstruction. It will take another month before this happens because of politics

this isn't necessarily what I would like to happen but I can see it going that way.

Quite plausible outcome, maybe even the most likely, I'd lean towards a scenario like this as well.  I think your outcome is also actually relatively optimistic, in that I think this is one of the better realistic outcomes for Ukraine.  They maintain sovereignty and don't have a new government installed and get funding to rebuild.  Ukraine might even get back the section of Donbas they lost.  I don't think Russia will give back any of Crimea though no matter what happens.   

[Rev. Powell]

What do people think will probably happen?

I think Zelensky is going through the motions of trying to get the US involved, but our hands are tied. We are a NATO member and its game over if we go in there.

I think Putin's rabid dog routine will work and Ukraine will eventually agree to not enter NATO in some sort of face saving way, like a 30 year moratorium on it.

Russia will head back home leaving some infrastructure in the pro Russia areas and western nations will fund reconstruction. It will take another month before this happens because of politics

this isn't necessarily what I would like to happen but I can see it going that way.

Quite plausible outcome, maybe even the most likely, I'd lean towards a scenario like this as well.  I think your outcome is also actually relatively optimistic, in that I think this is one of the better realistic outcomes for Ukraine.  They maintain sovereignty and don't have a new government installed and get funding to rebuild.  Ukraine might even get back the section of Donbas they lost.  I don't think Russia will give back any of Crimea though no matter what happens.   

I think lester's scenario is likely. I think Putin will annex the Donbass regions (and as much territory as he can) and declare victory, leaving Ukraine weakened but still independent. Putin will attempt to install a puppet government but it won't succeed. Ukraine will agree to not enter NATO. Pretty much everyone comes out a loser, except that there will be some deterrence for another dictator to invade a neighbor (looking at you, China).

[RCMerchant]

I'm not so optimistic. I hope I'm wrong, but expect the least. 
For some reason I've had dreams since a child of mushroom clouds. VERY realistic. I know this is a stupid, occult type of belief, but this kind of sh!t has happened to me all my life.

[LilCerberus]

The other day, I started working on a timeline of ww1 & ww2.....
While poxy support of the Sino-Japanese war complicates things just a bit, It's pretty clear in both cases that the United States was the "last" to get involved.....

[indianasmith]

I'm still hoping for the removal of Putin - either into forced retirement, a la Khrushchev, or instantaneous lead poisoning, a la Larentvia Beria.

[Newt]

I think lester's scenario is the best that can be hoped for.

Well, aside from Putin's summary removal.

I thought I heard on today's news that Zelensky had said Ukraine will not be joining NATO.   Then it was suggested that Russia will insist Ukraine become officially neutral like Austria and Sweden.  Which would allow Ukraine to be both independent and to maintain its own military.

[lester1/2jr]

Russia, Iran, China... these are ancient, huge countries. On some level it's natural for them to be powerful in their parts of the world. All have at some point flirted with freedom and open ness but ultimately that will probably be a decades if not centuries long process. Our approach of waiting for change overnight is not realistic.

RC- but that scenario is worth considering.


One thing I learned today is that these people going to Ukraine to fight are not covered by Geneva Conventions. If they are captured they will probably shot

[Allhallowsday]

I'm still hoping for the removal of Putin - either into forced retirement, a la Khrushchev, or instantaneous lead poisoning, a la Larentvia Beria.

Lavrentiy Beria was shot.   

[indianasmith]

That's instantaneous lead poisoning.

[Rev. Powell]

Nata is posting and fed the pigeons again. I was worried about them.

My Russian FB friend hasn't posted in a couple of days, no idea why.

[Allhallowsday]

That's instantaneous lead poisoning.

Yes.  And so many were poisoned properly, hence my clarification.  I actually looked him up to confirm what I'd thought.  "Lead poisoning". 

[Rev. Powell]

Nata still posting, still feeding pigeons. Russians still shelling residential areas.

[RCMerchant]

Shelling maternity wards and apartment buildings.
Makes me wanna cry.

http://youtu.be/ek6Le_mWNzE

[ER]

And compared to what will come if this goes on, things haven't even STARTED to get nasty yet.