Who should be the next president?

[ulthar]

Sigh.

Again.  Mathematical analysis of these polls show ZERO statistical efficacy.  The polls mean NOTHING.  They have ZERO predictive power and are not even descriptive snapshots in time. 

They are nothing more than "political theater."

Stop and think about why they are pushed so hard.  Such polls, which mean NOTHING (no matter who is shown winning), serve only to deflect attention from other stories.

This is the difference between "rational decision making" and "emotional decision making."  A rational person ignores data that is KNOWN to be crap.  Emotionally, we cling to any/all data that supports our preconceived beliefs.

The polls are crap, but being rational is hard.

From the very beginning of this campaign, I looked at the head-to-head polls of how the various Republicans polled against Hillary Clinton.  Those were often forgotten in the crush of polls between the GOP candidates and the state-by-state primary polling, but I found them informative.  Dozens of these polls were done, from the moment Trump entered the race right up till this day (realclearpolitics.com index of polls).  In virtually EVERY head-to-head poll, Hillary has crushed Trump.  Yes, his rallies draw more people, but the people who come to those rallies are mostly Trump supporters anyway.  Statistical samplings of the population have shown from the beginning that people prefer Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump.  That has remained true in about 90% of the head-to-head polls since this whole thing started.  I know polls can be skewed by the sample selection, but 90% is an alarming number for Trump supporters.  I see no evidence that demographic has changed, which means Hillary Clinton WILL be President, like it or not.


(For the record, in those same polls, Marco Rubio beat Hillary Clinton EVERY time, often by double digits.  Shame he's not our nominee.)

[lester1/2jr]

(For the record, in those same polls, Marco Rubio beat Hillary Clinton EVERY time, often by double digits.  Shame he's not our nominee

thats not true here are the Rubio vs Hillary polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html#polls

or here http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-rubio-vs-clinton


the earliest ones have clinton way way up. They began to converge when it looked like he might be the nominee but then split back toward Hillary when he couldn't seal the deal

[ulthar]

Hillary headed for Prison yet?

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/house-to-hold-clinton-perjury-hearing/article/2599638

Well, probably not.  The Ryan licker Cucks in the house outnumber the Reps with real gonads.

Trey Gowdy for President...or SCOTUS.  Til then, here's hoping the House does it's JOB for a change.

[lester1/2jr]

^see thats what I mean.  ryan licker cucks? these hard core right wing expressions don't really travel well

[Skull]

From the very beginning of this campaign, I looked at the head-to-head polls of how the various Republicans polled against Hillary Clinton.  Those were often forgotten in the crush of polls between the GOP candidates and the state-by-state primary polling, but I found them informative.  Dozens of these polls were done, from the moment Trump entered the race right up till this day (realclearpolitics.com index of polls).  In virtually EVERY head-to-head poll, Hillary has crushed Trump.  Yes, his rallies draw more people, but the people who come to those rallies are mostly Trump supporters anyway.  Statistical samplings of the population have shown from the beginning that people prefer Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump.  That has remained true in about 90% of the head-to-head polls since this whole thing started.  I know polls can be skewed by the sample selection, but 90% is an alarming number for Trump supporters.  I see no evidence that demographic has changed, which means Hillary Clinton WILL be President, like it or not.


(For the record, in those same polls, Marco Rubio beat Hillary Clinton EVERY time, often by double digits.  Shame he's not our nominee.)

And for the record Marco Rubio lost his home state (do I need to remind you who beat him?). Also most of the Conservative (except for RUSH) hated Rubio because of the Gang of 8 bill. And what really killed Rubio was the support of the Establishment. Sorry, Rubio and Cruz needs to sucker punch Santa and you cannot do that while being nice. Too many uneducated voters that thought Romney was going to ban birthcontrol is not going to realize that Santa (DEMOCRAT PARTY) is a THIEF.   


I also think this is a funny line you wrote and I want you to think deep about it, because it contradicts your post:

Yes, his rallies draw more people, but the people who come to those rallies are mostly Trump supporters anyway.

[indianasmith]

I looked at the poll average this morning again, and every single NATIONAL poll shows Trump losing to Hillary.  EVERY ONE.
He wins a few state polls (in red states), but when multiple polls tell the same story month after month after month - that Trump loses the national election to Hillary - you can dismiss them all you want, but frankly, I think they begin to approach the real numbers.

If Trump loses, nationwide, by the same margin that he has trailed in the polls for the last six months, are you STILL going to say those polls are meaningless?

[Skull]

I looked at the poll average this morning again, and every single NATIONAL poll shows Trump losing to Hillary.  EVERY ONE.
He wins a few state polls (in red states), but when multiple polls tell the same story month after month after month - that Trump loses the national election to Hillary - you can dismiss them all you want, but frankly, I think they begin to approach the real numbers.

Depends... how many Trump supporters want to be called a racist when they are asked to take a poll?

If Trump loses, nationwide, by the same margin that he has trailed in the polls for the last six months, are you STILL going to say those polls are meaningless?

I'll be pointing my finger at the Never Trumpers.

[indianasmith]

That's where, frankly, you are displaying cognitive dissonance.  Trump has the HIGHEST negatives of anyone in politics right now - about 70% of the country has a negative view of him.  Again, those poll numbers have hardly budged since this race began.  Hillary's negatives are high, but about 12 points below his, and again, that ratio hasn't moved much. 

So you Trump supporters nominate a man that a majority of Americans despise, lose, and it's the fault of all those of us who tried to warn you that a majority of Americans despise your candidate?  Makes perfect sense!

[Skull]

That's where, frankly, you are displaying cognitive dissonance.  Trump has the HIGHEST negatives of anyone in politics right now - about 70% of the country has a negative view of him.  Again, those poll numbers have hardly budged since this race began.  Hillary's negatives are high, but about 12 points below his, and again, that ratio hasn't moved much. 

So you Trump supporters nominate a man that a majority of Americans despise, lose, and it's the fault of all those of us who tried to warn you that a majority of Americans despise your candidate?  Makes perfect sense!

I'm going to sit back and enjoy the weekend. I'll let you Never Trumpers think about the mistake you guys are making with your support for Hillary.

[indianasmith]

For the last time, I do NOT support Hillary Clinton.  Get this through your head please:  I HATE THEM BOTH.  I WILL VOTE FOR NEITHER.  THAT MEANS I SUPPORT NEITHER!


At this point, I'd vote for Cthulhu himself over EITHER of them.

[lester1/2jr]

Indiana - where are the polls that show rubio beating Hilary by double digits?

[RCMerchant]

Indiana - where are the polls that show rubio beating Hilary by double digits?

In the hands of the pollsters,I reckon.
I understand-I really-REALLY do.
Americans are sick of s**t-big goverment-when-and Trump is right-the system is rigged.
But if he wants to be elected president he shouldn't talk s**t about Mexicans. And he says this and says that-and he feeds into your emotions. Working class-yet this f**ker is richer than any idiot has the right to be-he sits on a f**king GOLD CHAIR! People with meth mouth and fans of Duck Dynasty are thrilled-and so are folks who just want it to happen because they like chaos.
Wheres the working class-he's a smart f**ker who knows how to brainwash people-and he did-people who think with their anger.
The guy is like a sneaky Dr.Doom! 

[lester1/2jr]

so Indiansmith is a pollster? He said he looked at polls that show Rubio beating Clinton by double digits and i can't find any.

[Skull]

For the last time, I do NOT support Hillary Clinton.  Get this through your head please:  I HATE THEM BOTH.  I WILL VOTE FOR NEITHER.  THAT MEANS I SUPPORT NEITHER!


At this point, I'd vote for Cthulhu himself over EITHER of them.

Sorry a vote for Cthulhu is a vote for Hillary :)

[RCMerchant]

so Indiansmith is a pollster? He said he looked at polls that show Rubio beating Clinton by double digits and i can't find any.

He dont have to-it's ON EVERY NEWS CHANNEL-and Fox just spins it. Because its owned by a old ass grabber millionare. They're butt buddies-Trump was a Democrat-he is now NOT a Republican-he's not for YOU-he's for TRUMP. Most news is biased-but I don't rely on what pundits say-I watch and listen to his speeches-he preys on fear-and theyre is much to fear-no doubt about it-but he aint being honest-hes a liar millionare-who never picked up a shovel in his whole life-and he's a man of the people-he even called him self a blue collar millionare.
guess what?
THERE IS NO SUCH THING.