Going back to nuclear. For or Against? Please keep it civil.

[Morpheus, the unwoke.]

One important thing to remember is that if you are starting from a very low base, then it is very easy to show a high percentile increase.

True, dat.

This is why china has such improvement in living standards since the 80's.

[ralfy]

"late capitalism" as an expression that was invented in 1975. Since then, way more countries are capitalist than socialist. so really it was late socialism. the holdouts for this style of govt are Venezuela, North Korea, and Cuba who's major contribution to the world have been immigrants looking for a better situation

Late capitalism refers to the situation where income levels are so high a country now outsources and focuses on service industries, high-tech manufacturing, etc. It was first used during the early part of the twentieth century:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_capitalism

Results include increasing debt, outsourcing, high consumption per capita, and even population aging.

[ralfy]

One important thing to remember is that if you are starting from a very low base, then it is very easy to show a high percentile increase.

Also, diminishing returns take place as economic growth peaks.

Meanwhile, economic growth is much faster, with countries sustaining something like a 6-pct growth rate across several decades. I think for countries like the U.S. the golden years only lasted from '45 to the late '60s, after which issues with real wages started to set in.

[ralfy]

True, dat.

This is why china has such improvement in living standards since the 80's.

It is now currently experiencing population aging, and I think 60 pct of its manufacturing is assembly as it has started outsourcing in turn, and relying on cheap labor from other countries. Similar happened to countries like the U.S. and Japan.

[LilCerberus]

I saw a post on Facebook yesterday about how Glen Youngkin wants to test Small Modular Reactors in some abandoned coal mines in Southwest Virginia....

It was a hit piece that went into a tangent about how we need to go back to hydroelectric....
Trouble with hydroelectric is, somebody's still gonna raise a stink....
I had to point out how California emptied out all their reservoirs & hydroelectric dams to save a bunch of fish that aren't even endangered....

[lester1/2jr]

ralfy - I stand corrected: that the expression "late capitalism" in fact existed around 1900 makes my point even stronger

"
Late capitalism refers to the situation where income levels are so high a country now outsources and focuses on service industries, high-tech manufacturing, etc. It was first used during the early part of the twentieth century:"

it doesn't say that in the link you provided at all. "outsourcing" is one particular policy in the midst of a capitalist system. and it didn't exist in the early 20th century

[ralfy]

ralfy - I stand corrected: that the expression "late capitalism" in fact existed around 1900 makes my point even stronger

"
Late capitalism refers to the situation where income levels are so high a country now outsources and focuses on service industries, high-tech manufacturing, etc. It was first used during the early part of the twentieth century:"

it doesn't say that in the link you provided at all. "outsourcing" is one particular policy in the midst of a capitalist system. and it didn't exist in the early 20th century

The idea that I'm using comes from Jameson, but he refers to the effects rather than the causes of late capitalism. Here's what I think happened:

People started moving from farms to factories to avail of higher pay. Industrialists set up assembly line methods and other means to take advantage of economies of scale, then set up means with banks to provide things like layaway plans for workers to buy the goods that they manufactured. Meanwhile, agriculture was mechanized.

This accelerated from 1945 to the late 1960s, the so-called "golden age" of the U.S. economy, as workers earned high in manufacturing while receiving credit to buy houses, furniture, appliances, cars, etc.

That ended starting in the early 1970s as what happened to the U.S. started taking place in European countries and in Japan, with the latter eventually taking over manufacturing. U.S. real wages eventually reached a peak, but with more productivity the gains went to a few that owned these companies.

After the late 1970s, U.S. manufacturers started outsourcing, and more workers now had to move from manufacturing to service industries. That's why more had to go to college or learn other skills which employers wanted. But since service industries can't be "exported" then the trade deficits which had started during the early 1970s became chronic. To compensate for that debt and spending started to rise considerably, to the point that it is now impossible for the U.S. to even pay for part of interests on previous debts.

What happened to the U.S. eventually happened to various European countries and Japan. And the countries which received outsourcing from Japan are beginning to experience similar. Even in China more workers want to move away from manufacturing to service industries (where pay is higher but more skills needed), while something like 60 pct of its manufacturing now consists of assembly, as it outsourced them to other countries with cheap labor.

That's late capitalism: high incomes artificially driven by high levels of debt and spending, and the latter driven by what Veblen would refer to as "pecuniary emulation", ultimately contributing to decadence, wokeness, etc.

That's why the same liberal attitudes are growing even in places like Japan and South Korea, where more young people move from job to job, want nice office work that pays the most for the least amount of work, and are part of a consumer spending society.

[lester1/2jr]

again thats not what the definition you cited says.

and its not true. Japan has tons of subsidized manufacturing and agriculture. The US has less of the former and more of the latter.  Also, the "outsourcing" doesn't mean the money evaporates, China built its current status via being part of capitalism in this manner, which has allowed for a much higher quality of life than they had under Mao.

capitalist countries like Canada, Singapore and Finland have lots of plumbers, mechanics, nurses and people that make and sell things theres no late stage involved.

more specifically re the 70's though https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock is a big part of why things started to go awry. just more printing of money

[ralfy]

again thats not what the definition you cited says.

and its not true. Japan has tons of subsidized manufacturing and agriculture. The US has less of the former and more of the latter.  Also, the "outsourcing" doesn't mean the money evaporates, China built its current status via being part of capitalism in this manner, which has allowed for a much higher quality of life than they had under Mao.

capitalist countries like Canada, Singapore and Finland have lots of plumbers, mechanics, nurses and people that make and sell things theres no late stage involved.

more specifically re the 70's though https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock is a big part of why things started to go awry. just more printing of money

It's given in the wiki entry. You need to read it very carefully. Add to that Aglietta.

Japan has been experiencing lost decades since 1991.

The bulk of U.S. business is not manufacturing but services. The former started decreasing during the 1970s. In addition to that, economic growth has been slow since the early 1960s, trade deficits chronic since the early 1970s, and overall debt and spending rising since the early 1980s. Debt is, I'm told, impossible to pay, as what's borrowed annually can't even pay for part of interest of previous debt.

Canada, Singapore, and Finland have been facing the effects of increasing debt, personal spending, and demographic problems due to low birth rates and population aging. In addition, Canada has housing bubble problems like the states, Singapore crony capitalism, and Finland deterioration of its once-formidable tech industries (like Nokia).

Similar is taking place with China, where 60 pct of manufacturing consists of assembly as it outsources in turn to countries like Thailand, currently considered the "Detroit of Asia". It's also facing low birth rates plus pollution problems.

The Nixon shock is one of the results of late capitalism coupled with the Triffin dilemma. That is, after WW2 the U.S. dominated with manufacturing, oil, and even gold reserves, which is why Bretton Woods took place. That allowed it to export heavily while being able to import cheap, but because of the dilemma, that "golden age" lasted only until the late 1960s. After that, real wages peaked, the cost of living increased, oil production peaked, more countries started to trade their dollars for gold, etc. The result was the Nixon shock: drop the gold standard and argue that the dollar is good enough to back itself. That was not enough, so Nixon had to make a deal with the Saudis as well to have oil priced in dollars.

Last point: these are connected to the topic thread (I want to remain on-topic) because they show that capitalist systems require not only continuous economic growth but even increase rate of increase in growth. That's why not only will the world go back to nuclear but will use every energy source available to avert collapse.

[Morpheus, the unwoke.]

Could we keep this on topic? Returning to large scale nuclear energy for the west?

[LilCerberus]

Anybody have an opinion/insight on these Small Modular Reactors I mentioned earlier?

[ralfy]

Could we keep this on topic? Returning to large scale nuclear energy for the west?

The west need more from global trade, so a lot of energy will be needed by the global economy itself. Given that, I don't think even large-scale nuclear energy will cut it. From what I remember, given current uranium supplies, we only have something like a decade's worth of energy that can be obtained from that. Include uranium taken from the oceans, then we might add another decade.

But this doesn't make up for rare metals also needed for reactors, and we need them for many other goods, especially consumer goods that markets want.

Finally, this only covers current energy usage. That's set to increase given growing population plus energy demand per capital:

https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/howmuchenergy/

[lester1/2jr]

ending of the gold standard aka nixon shock was because America was printing money to pay for the unpopular Vietnam War not because of late stage capitalism. finland and singapore aren't facing lower populations due to lower birth rates.

Singapore

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=singapore+population


finland

https://www.google.com/search?q=finland+population&client=firefox-b-1-d&sxsrf=ALiCzsYA3Z1dcnX9fJIgI7wkOCTwfwurxg%3A1669269868618&ei=bAl_Y56vJbik5NoPhbu5qAs&oq=finaland&gs_lcp=Cgxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAQARgAMg0IABCxAxCRAhBGEPsBMggILhCxAxCRAjIFCAAQkQIyBQgAEJECMgUIABCRAjIKCAAQgAQQsQMQCjIKCAAQgAQQsQMQCjIHCAAQgAQQCjIHCAAQgAQQCjIKCAAQgAQQsQMQCjoKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzoHCAAQsAMQQzoECCMQJzoECC4QJzoECAAQQzoLCAAQgAQQsQMQgwE6BQgAEIAEOgsILhCDARDUAhCxAzoICAAQsQMQgwE6BwguENQCEEM6BwguELEDEEM6CggAELEDEIMBEEM6CAgAEIAEELEDOhEILhCABBCxAxCDARDHARDRAzoECC4QQzoICC4QgAQQsQM6CgguELEDEIMBEEM6CAguEIAEENQCOgQIABADOgoILhCABBCxAxAKSgQIQRgASgQIRhgAUIIGWNUMYPMZaAFwAXgAgAF0iAGHBpIBAzUuM5gBAKABAcgBCsABAQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

It's given in the wiki entry.

cite it then



and to reiterate protectionism is NOT socialist or liberal in any sense. Pat Buchanan of the farthest right in the US is a proponent of it as is Robert reich, of the Clinton-ite left. https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1888/free-trade/

[ralfy]

ending of the gold standard aka nixon shock was because America was printing money to pay for the unpopular Vietnam War not because of late stage capitalism. finland and singapore aren't facing lower populations due to lower birth rates.

Singapore

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=singapore+population


finland

https://www.google.com/search?q=finland+population&client=firefox-b-1-d&sxsrf=ALiCzsYA3Z1dcnX9fJIgI7wkOCTwfwurxg%3A1669269868618&ei=bAl_Y56vJbik5NoPhbu5qAs&oq=finaland&gs_lcp=Cgxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAQARgAMg0IABCxAxCRAhBGEPsBMggILhCxAxCRAjIFCAAQkQIyBQgAEJECMgUIABCRAjIKCAAQgAQQsQMQCjIKCAAQgAQQsQMQCjIHCAAQgAQQCjIHCAAQgAQQCjIKCAAQgAQQsQMQCjoKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzoHCAAQsAMQQzoECCMQJzoECC4QJzoECAAQQzoLCAAQgAQQsQMQgwE6BQgAEIAEOgsILhCDARDUAhCxAzoICAAQsQMQgwE6BwguENQCEEM6BwguELEDEEM6CggAELEDEIMBEEM6CAgAEIAEELEDOhEILhCABBCxAxCDARDHARDRAzoECC4QQzoICC4QgAQQsQM6CgguELEDEIMBEEM6CAguEIAEENQCOgQIABADOgoILhCABBCxAxAKSgQIQRgASgQIRhgAUIIGWNUMYPMZaAFwAXgAgAF0iAGHBpIBAzUuM5gBAKABAcgBCsABAQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

It's given in the wiki entry.

cite it then



and to reiterate protectionism is NOT socialist or liberal in any sense. Pat Buchanan of the farthest right in the US is a proponent of it as is Robert reich, of the Clinton-ite left. https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1888/free-trade/

Right, and at the same time the Triffin dilemma was at play, which is why U.S. economic growth started to slow down a decade before that, and trade deficits became chronic a few years after. That's all part of late capitalism, too.

What you're looking for is birth rate, not population.

From

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_capitalism

In modern usage, late capitalism often refers to a new mix of high-tech advances, the concentration of (speculative) financial capital, post-Fordism, and a growing income inequality.[16]

In short, the move from manufacturing to service industries, esp. financing, rising debt and spending, which is part of financial speculating, high-tech advances leading to post-Fordism (as much of manufacturing is outsourced and smaller firms are formed to focus on specialized components), and inequality (due to real wages peaking, and then surplus profits going to the few who are owners of businesses, which with financial capital leads to an economy mostly owned by a few).

Protectionism is socialist because it's regulatory and the opposite of free markets.

[LilCerberus]

I was reminded earlier this evening, that part of the problem is an outdated power grid....

It's an issue that power companies have have been trying to avoid since the '90s, & only started paying lip service a few years ago.....
In part, because it took us a hundred years to get into this mess, & it'll take us a hundred years to get out of it, but also because fewer states have their own power plants these days, meaning a larger amount of electricity needs to be transferred over a larger area....