COVID-19 Rant

[Alex]

Hopefully, this will calm a few nervous people a little, although I'd remind you that something being close to devoloping is not the same as available now, or in the next week/month/whenever.

Scientists close to developing coronavirus vaccine after tests on mice

A vaccine for the Covid-19 illness caused by the coronavirus is on the verge of being developed, a team of scientists has said.

Researchers, led by Mucosal Infection and Immunity head Dr Robin Shattock, told the Daily Express they have successfully trialled the vaccine in mice and are hopeful it could be ready for human trials by June.

Senior researcher Dr Paul McKay, of Imperial College London, told the paper: "I've got results from a month after I injected (the mice) and the vaccine works really, really well."

The team is working with scientists in Paris to determine the vaccine's effectiveness in monkeys.

Dr McKay said they have applied for further funding from the Medical Research Council to conduct human clinical trials.

"If we get the funding for the human clinical trials, we will put it into people by June," he said.

"If British scientists here develop a vaccine it would be great if the Government supported it."

Should the human trials be successful, the team is hopeful the vaccine will be available for patients in a year.

[lester1/2jr]

do't go out to eat, but do patronize restaurants, order takeout that is delivered by a magic machine of some sort that doesn't contain a person who may have the virus. if you'd like you make invite 2.5 friends over anymore you have just recreated the restaurant experience

[zelmo73]

so far 30 people have died in the US, almost all of them at a rest home in Washington state.

almost all the cases in the world are in China Italy and Iran

we're allowed to be a little cynical aren't we?

no, we are NOT. there are 3 new cases in my state. all 3 flew to kansas from florida. NOTHING has been said about tracking down all the people at that conference, all the hotel workers, all the people on that flight, all the people on the next flights of that plane, since there is no way it was actually disinfected between flights,NOTHING. there could be as many as 4000 people infected from ONE business conference. it is NOT a time for cynicism.

Yes, it is time to be cynical. Or at least, one must wonder if you are this shocked at such trivial numbers in Kansas, then you must be wiping your own brains from your exploded head off the walls of your home at *these* far more devastating (and common) statistics:

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

[zelmo73]

dr. fauci said yesterday that this is at least 10 times more deadly than any flu. this is SERIOUS, people. and it won't be over soon, either.

10 times more deadly than any flu is a much lower number than the "20 times deadlier" false information that was being touted a month ago:

CCDC said it was fortunate COVID-19 has been mild for 81% of patients and has a low overall case fatality rate of 2.3% compared to SARS which had close to 10%. However, compared to the seasonal flu with a death rate in the U.S. of about about 0.1%, these statistics mean Covid-19 is 20 times deadlier than the flu.

https://www.ibtimes.com/china-coronavirus-20-times-deadlier-flu-men-more-likely-die-2924865

[indianasmith]

This is something I wrote on my FB page earlier today.

I've been watching the coverage of the Corona virus and the reactions to it all week. Here are my thoughts, for what they are worth.

OK, first of all - people are overreacting. While buying up a week's worth of groceries and some bottled water is never a bad idea, hoarding toilet paper is stupid. Making a panicked dash to the grocery store and buying months' worth of stuff is not merited. Now, I've been listening, reading, and watching comments from the folks who KNOW what they are talking about - not politicians and reporters, but epidemiologists and doctors. Those are the ones that we need to pay attention to. This is a summary of what they are saying, as I understand it:

First of all, a lot of people are going to catch this thing. CDC estimates anywhere from 20% to 60% of the population will be infected before Corona has run its course, depending largely on how successful our quarantine efforts are. That is pretty scary on its face, but there is good news. The vast majority of those infected will recover fully, most will only be sickened for a few days. The generally young and healthy have EXCELLENT (by that I mean, over 99%) odds of full recovery.

That being said, this is NOT "just like the flu." Yes, flu kills about 25,000 people a year in America alone, sometimes twice that in a bad year. BUT - the reason so many people die from it is because MILLIONS get it. Flu, according to the CDC, has a mortality rate of .1% = one tenth of one per cent. So, if ten million people get the flu, ten thousand will die, mostly elderly and people with compromised immune systems. But we have vaccines for the flu, and we also have medications that are specifically designed to minimize the symptoms of it (Tamiflu is good stuff!).

The problem with COVID-19 is that it has a mortality rate between 2% and 3.5%, according to the latest estimates. Let's say the lowball number is correct and call it 2%. If one million people contract the virus, that means twenty thousand will die. If ten million contract it, that number goes up to 200,000. If a hundred million people contract this - that's less than a third of our population - the death toll would be two million. That is WAY worse than the flu! And there is NO vaccine yet.

Is this gonna "kill us all"? NO, it is not. Not even the horribly virulent 1918 flu mutation did that, although it did claim 75-100 million lives worldwide in the span of two years. But Corona IS serious and quarantine measures make good sense. The more quickly and completely we implement these precautions, the more we can flatten the mortality curve and the less people will get infected - and therefore, less people will die.

So use common sense, follow recommended quarantine guidelines, don't get crazy stupid with hoarding - just keep a decent store of groceries on hand and minimize human contact. Oh, and don't hoard toilet paper. We're gonna make it through this. Be smart!

[Alex]

You know people have been advised to sneeze into their elbow, and yet instead have chosen to stock up on toilet paper.

This leads me to one inevitable conclusion.

People really can't tell their arses from their elbows.

[Rev. Powell]

The NBA, NCAA, Major League Baseball, Broadway, and so on do not close up shop and forgo billions of dollars of revenue just because there is a bad case of the flu going around. This is serious. The panicky stockpiling is the most annoying symptom most of us will have to deal with, but they didn't shut down Italy and Spain on a crazy hunch.

[ER]

Speaking of Italy, a Canadian friend of mine lives outside of Genoa and said no matter what I've heard about what's happening in Italy, it's probably worse, that some foreign visitors with money are sleeping in parks because no one can go anywhere and hotels are often closed, that everything is shut down where he is and rumors seem to have replaced fact, resulting in paranoia, which he said is maybe worse than the actual situation requires. He also said tabloids and shock jocks and conspiracy theorists are having a field day scaring everyone and spreading misinformation. I wonder if all that's our future over here or an extreme reaction on the part of Italians that won't quite be replicated in the United States? (Or maybe he was exaggerating.....)

[lester1/2jr]

so far there are no deaths in my state  https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-updates-united-states.html

[LilCerberus]

First death in my state.......................
Guy was 70, don't know any more................
I still have a few rolls of toilet paper, and I'm still going to CNC class............

[Trevor]

Schools are closed here as from Wednesday: most of our ports and borders with places like Zimbabwe and Botswana will be closed and flights from so-called problem or high risk areas have been told to bugger off.

[WingedSerpent]

School is closed for about 3 weeks.
A couple of film festivals and places I like to go have been closed down, rescheduled, and such
But I still got to go to work.

Are some people overreacting?  Probably, but that doesn't mean there's no danger.  Both my parents are in their 70's so their in the extreme danger risk if they contract the coronavirus. 

Right now I just want to put myself in a chemically induced coma for the next few weeks and wake up refreshed and walk into a calmer world.

[Alex]

What are governments and companies in countries outside the UK doing to support people who are going to miss out on work and thus wages during this outbreak? In the UK we already have sick pay (not a huge amount of money, but better than nothing, and it has been increased and extended to help people. It is better than nothing, however), and some businesses are saying they will continue to pay full wages for staff diagnosed with Covid-19. Steps have also been taken to help small businesses (less than 250 employees) with the extra expenses and difficulties they will be facing (although I can't say if those measures are large enough sums or not).

[Leah]

I don't understand the stocking and hoarding of toilet paper. Water I can see, but needing 5 billion rolls of toilet paper? As far as catching it I'm more than likely to catch it due to working in a store. However, from what I've heard, the main sick ones that are hospitalize are usually older and heavy smokers.

[Rev. Powell]

I don't understand the stocking and hoarding of toilet paper. Water I can see, but needing 5 billion rolls of toilet paper? As far as catching it I'm more than likely to catch it due to working in a store. However, from what I've heard, the main sick ones that are hospitalize are usually older and heavy smokers.

It's purely psychological. People like to think that stockpiling gives them control over the situation. Why they pick toilet paper in particular is a mystery.